Event Analysis
The read on every fight of the biggest UFC events, receipts on the table.
Model performance
0%
96 of 131 winner predictions correct
The model is honest — and has a real edge.
A coin flip would be 50%. Across 131 resolved predictions, the model sits at 73%.
Winner 73%·Method 65%·Most Likely 83% (5 cards)
Honest number. Small sample on purpose.
Calibration
The more confident it is, the more it’s right.
Every prediction ships with a conviction score from 1 to 10. Group the record by that score and the pattern shows up on its own.
coin flip · 50%
Coin-flip fights
conviction < 6
9 of 17 correct
Medium conviction
conviction 6
37 of 58 correct
High conviction
conviction 7+
50 of 56 correct
On the coin-flip fights, accuracy sits near 50%, and that’s honesty, not a flaw. When the model commits to high conviction, it’s right nearly 9 out of 10.
By method of victory
How accurately the model predicts the finish.
KO / TKO
37/63
Submission
10/22
Decision
38/90
Card by card
The full scoreboard.
All 11 cards since the refresh, the best and the worst, nothing hidden.