Most Likely

Selected scenarios for this week’s card, with explicit evidence, sample scope and limitations.

Analysis hit rate

28 of 40 calls correct · last 12 cards

Target70% / 80%

Target 80%

UFC Vegas 121 · SAT SEP 26 · 21:00 BRTPublished September 23 · three days out

Call of the week

Dumont vs PerezMethod

Fight to end by decision

Conviction Medium

Qualitative assessment · not a probability

Nine of the ten bouts in the recent window ended by decision: five for Dumont and four for Perez. This is a historical frequency, not a 90% probability for this matchup.

Key statRule: Official method equals decision

View full analysis →Sources: ESPN

Not betting advice · curation only

COLISEUM BY CRENAS — THE BEST ANALYSIS IN THE UFC