May 30, 2026 · Galaxy Arena, Macau
Song
22-9-1 (1 NC)
#7 BantamweightHeilongjiang, China | 28 years old
Figueiredo
25-6-1
#9 BantamweightSoure, Brazil | 38 years old
Calibre vs Calibre, Five Rounds in Macau
Song is coming off a UD loss to champ O'Malley and he's still only 28. Deiveson is 38, dropped a UD to Umar, and got stopped by Sandhagen on a TKO injury. Five rounds in Macau decide who heads back into the bantamweight title queue. The market has Song and Figueiredo.
THE INTERSECTION
The Younger Fighter Has the Calibre. The Veteran Has the Power — But in Five Rounds in Macau, Age Cashes the Check.
Song Yadong is the most experienced bantamweight in the division within the 28-year-old age bracket. He's piled up 11 wins and 6 losses in the UFC, dropped fights to three former champions across his last 4 cards (Yan, O'Malley, and a controversial UD over Cejudo in February 2025), and has never been finished in 32 professional fights. The public narrative is that he failed to break through to the top tier, but the read needs to be calibrated: three of those four losses were tight three-round cards against former champions. The guys who beat him are world-class references; the guy who lost wasn't hurt. On the other side, Deiveson Figueiredo is the fighter who bet everything on the division jump. Two-time flyweight champion with the iconic Moreno KO, he moved up to bantamweight in December 2023, debuting with a wide UD (30-27 across) over Rob Font (it looked like he was about to explode at 135). But the ceiling dropped: round-2 TKO injury knee loss to Sandhagen out-struck 92-8, UD to Umar at 138.5 lb catchweight (missed weight, forfeited 25% of his purse), UD to Yan in the same Macau venue where this fight is going down. At 38, he's the fighter with the most mileage in the cage in this matchup. The question in this main event isn't technical, it's structural. Deiveson still has a real path (preserved flyweight pop, BJJ black belt), but he has to close it out in rounds 1-3, because rounds 4-5 are Song's territory.
Truth A
Song Yadong has lost 4 of his last 6 UFC bouts, all via decision, all against former champions. The market reads it as a slide, but the calibre of opponents is the explanation. At 28 he's the youngest fighter in the bantamweight top 10. 4.61 SLpM against Deiveson's 3.09, 72% TDD against 53%, and never finished in 32 fights. Deiveson's calibre was higher at flyweight, but at bantamweight he's zero KOs in 5 fights and two ugly results in a row against the elite.
Truth B
Deiveson Figueiredo is a two-time flyweight champion with 9 KOs in 25 wins, a BJJ black belt with 7 submissions in his career. KO of Moreno at UFC 263, UDs over Font, Garbrandt, Vera at bantamweight. But he's dropped 3 of his last 4 (Yan, Sandhagen, Umar), got stopped by Sandhagen on a round-2 TKO injury after being out-struck 92-8, and came in 2.5 lbs heavy at UFC 324. At 38, he's the fighter with the most mileage in this fight. His ceiling against the bantamweight elite has fallen across the last 12 months.
Tale of the Tape
Song Dec 1997 (28 years, 5 months, 28 days on fight night). Deiveson Dec 1987 (38 years, 5 months, 12 days). 10 extra years on Deiveson.
Song is 8cm taller. Clear height edge.
Deiveson 3cm longer. Marginal edge, doesn't offset the height difference.
Closed-stance matchup, orthodox vs orthodox. Battle of the lead foot and the outside hand.
Team Alpha Male in Sacramento under Urijah Faber vs Brazilian camp in Belem. Both are credentialed camps, different approaches (Chinese kickboxing vs BJJ + power striking).
Current Form
Song Yadong
UFC 324 main card. O'Malley used pressure and reach; Song had moments but lost the scorecards. He wasn't hurt.
Unanimous DecisionUFC Seattle main event. Accidental eye poke in round 4 forced a stoppage; judges scored it Song's way (30-27, 29-28, 29-28).
Technical DecisionUFC 299. Yan took close cards across three rounds — the fight that resurrected the Russian's career.
Unanimous DecisionUD across three rounds. Striking dominance and range management against a savvy veteran.
Unanimous DecisionRound-5 comeback. Ate four straight rounds of wrestling pressure, then landed the right cross and closed it out on the ground at 1:10 of the fifth.
TKO R5 (punches, 1:10)The arc of a fighter who's been a step away from the top. He dropped a unanimous decision to Sean O'Malley in January 2026 at UFC 324, a fight a lot of people thought was close. Before that he beat Henry Cejudo via technical decision in February 2025 (accidental eye poke in round 4, judges scored it 30-27, 29-28, 29-28 for Song), the kind of win that pushed him into the bantamweight top 5. The UD loss to Petr Yan in March 2024 (UFC 299) was another tight main-event card. Before Yan, Song was rolling off a round-5 TKO of Ricky Simon (April 2023) and a UD over Chris Gutierrez (December 2023), building a solid streak. He trains in Sacramento at Team Alpha Male — a Sanda and Chinese Muay Thai base with sharp kickboxing and orthodox movement. At 28, he's one of the youngest fighters in the rankings.
Deiveson Figueiredo
138.5 lb catchweight (missed weight). Umar controlled the striking and the wrestling across three rounds. Deiveson never landed clean.
Unanimous DecisionUD across three rounds. A win that at least got Deiveson back on track after the Sandhagen TKO.
Unanimous DecisionUFC Des Moines main event. Sandhagen swept from a 50-50 and blew out Deiveson's knee. Out-struck him 92-8 total. The worst loss of his career.
TKO R2 (knee injury, 4:08)Macau. Yan took close cards over three rounds. Deiveson never landed the heavy hand he needed.
Unanimous DecisionUD across three rounds in a main event. Vera tried to bang and Deiveson dictated the pace with his right hand and the clinch.
Unanimous DecisionA career defined by jumping divisions. Two-time flyweight champion (155-115 lbs) with three historic fights against Brandon Moreno and a brutal KO of Moreno in June 2021 at UFC 263. He moved up to bantamweight in December 2023, debuting against Rob Font and taking a wide UD (30-27 across the board). After that: UD over Cody Garbrandt, UD over Marlon Vera (Aug 2024), a UD loss to Petr Yan in November 2024 in Macau (same venue as this main event), a round-2 TKO injury (knee) loss to Cory Sandhagen in May 2025 (Sandhagen swept from 50-50, blew out his knee, out-struck him 92-8 total), and a UD over Montel Jackson in October 2025. His most recent outing was a UD loss to Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC 324 in January 2026 at a 138.5 lb catchweight (missed weight, forfeited 25% of his purse). BJJ black belt with heavy hands that carried over from flyweight. At 38, he's lost two of his last three at the top of the bantamweight 10.
Level of Competition
No direct common opponents at bantamweight. Petr Yan beat them both via UD (Yan beat Song in March 2024, beat Deiveson in November 2024) and is the best calibre proxy. Both decisions were three-rounders with no finish danger. Calibre of the last five opponents: Song faced O'Malley (former champion), Cejudo (former champion), Yan (former champion), Gutierrez, Simon. Deiveson faced Umar (#3), Jackson (top 15), Sandhagen (#4), Yan (former champion), Vera (top 10). Tied on calibre. The difference is momentum: Song walked out of a world-champion fight without being hurt; Deiveson walked out of a Sandhagen TKO injury and a UD to Umar at a missed-weight catchweight.
Statistical Comparison
Significant Strikes per Minute
Song produces 49% more volume. Explosive Sanda, sharp kickboxing.
Strike Accuracy (%)
Deiveson is 17 points higher. When he lands, he lands cleaner (flyweight pop).
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Song absorbs less. Deiveson absorbs more (4.00) and got out-struck 92-8 by Sandhagen.
Strike Defense (%)
Song is 19 points higher. Sanda movement creates angles; Deiveson has been static in his last fights.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Deiveson shoots twice as often. But Song defends 72%, so opportunistic Deiveson shots tend to fail.
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Song 55% accuracy when shooting. Deiveson 42%. But Deiveson tries twice as often.
Takedown Defense (%)
KEY STAT. Song 72% (elite bantamweight) vs Deiveson 53% (vulnerable). 19-point gap.
Song leads in 5 categories · Figueiredo leads in 2
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Well-distributed profiles. Song is more decision-heavy (48% of wins by decision), 26% by KO and 13% by submission. Deiveson has a more aggressive distribution: 36% by KO/TKO (9 finishes including KOs and TKOs), 28% by submission (7 subs), and 36% by decision. The difference is that Deiveson's 9 KOs came mostly at flyweight where he had a power edge. At bantamweight he's zero-for-five. Song has 6 KOs in 22 wins, the last one against Ricky Simon in round 5 (April 2023), proof he still finishes when he cashes in on cardio.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
A structurally important stat for this fight. Song has 9 career losses: 5 by decision (55.6%), 3 by KO/TKO (33.3%), and zero by submission. He's NEVER been submitted in 32 professional fights. The KOs were on the regional circuit early in his career (pre-UFC) and the Sandhagen R4 doctor stoppage on a cut in September 2022 that technically counts as TKO. Deiveson has 6 losses: 3 by decision (50%), 2 by KO/TKO (33.3%, including the Sandhagen TKO injury R2 in May 2025), and 1 by submission (RNC R3 to Brandon Moreno, UFC 263 in June 2021). For method bets: Deiveson submitting Song is statistically tough (zero subs in 32 fights, and Deiveson has never submitted anyone at bantamweight). Song by KO/TKO on Deiveson is more viable than the reverse, given Deiveson's chin has already been tested against Sandhagen and Umar.
Skills Profile
Song
vs
Figueiredo
Striking Volume
+2 Song
Song 4.61 SLpM vs Deiveson 3.09. Song produces 49% more raw volume. Sanda + Chinese Muay Thai against Belem-style striking.
Accuracy and Impact Power
+2 Figueiredo
Deiveson 55-59% accuracy, flyweight pop in his hands. Song 42% accuracy, more volume and less efficiency. Deiveson lands cleaner when he lands.
Knockout Power
+1 Figueiredo
Deiveson 9 KOs in 25 wins (36%). Song 6 KOs in 22 (27%). But Deiveson is zero-for-five at bantamweight, so the edge is historical, not current.
Takedown Defense
+2 Song
Song 72% TDD vs Deiveson 53% TDD. Neither one shoots as plan A. The stat matters for defending opportunistic shots.
Damage Resistance (Chin + Sub Defense)
+2 Song
Song has NEVER been submitted in 32 fights. Deiveson has been submitted once (Moreno RNC at UFC 263) and KO'd twice. Song has the elite chin and zero submission history.
Cardio Across Five Rounds
+3 Song
Song is 28, Deiveson is 38. Song has gone five recently with Simon and O'Malley. Deiveson has gone five at flyweight, but at bantamweight he's only fought 15-minute fights.
Deiveson has the edge in the first 15 minutes (power, preserved flyweight pop, BJJ catch threat). Song has the structural edge after that (cardio, age, elite chin, takedown defense, recent strength of schedule). The fight is a race between Deiveson finishing early and Song imposing his fight in the late rounds. A 10-year gap in a five-round main event is the deciding factor.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Song Yadong wins because he has a ten-year age advantage (28 vs 38) in a five-round main event where the gas tank counts double, recent strength of schedule that's equal or better (a UD loss to a reigning world champion in O'Malley is an honorable defeat; Figueiredo just dropped a UD to Umar and got TKO'd by Sandhagen, showing his ceiling against elite bantamweights has fallen), and a gas tank built for distance against a Deiveson who's a natural undersized fighter at 135 and grows into the weight.
The thesis is: Song Yadong wins because he has a ten-year age advantage (28 vs 38) in a five-round main event where the gas tank counts double, recent strength of schedule that's equal or better (a UD loss to a reigning world champion in O'Malley is an honorable defeat; Figueiredo just dropped a UD to Umar and got TKO'd by Sandhagen, showing his ceiling against elite bantamweights has fallen), and a gas tank built for distance against a Deiveson who's a natural undersized fighter at 135 and grows into the weight.
The path is Song working range across rounds 1-3 with kicks to the legs to erode mobility, avoiding pocket exchanges where Deiveson still has flyweight pop in his hands, mixing in a couple of opportunistic takedowns to flash threats, and closing scorecards 49-46 or 48-47 over the late rounds.
This collapses if Deiveson lands a clean overhand right in round 1 or 2, or catches a guillotine off a Song takedown attempt.
Conviction
Conviction 6 (not 7) because (1) a 10-year age gap in a five-round main event is decisive, (2) Song defends takedowns well and Figueiredo isn't dictating wrestling, (3) Song's recent strength of schedule is superior (lost cards to the champ, never finished), while Deiveson got TKO'd by Sandhagen and dropped a UD to Umar, showing his ceiling against the elite has dropped. But Deiveson's heavy hands don't evaporate, (b) BJJ catches off scrambles are a real threat on takedowns, (c) Deiveson has a track record of finishing when nobody expects (KO'd Moreno after losing to him twice). That's why I'm not going to conviction 7.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Deiveson lands a clean overhand right in the first 15 minutes before the gas tank dips (his specialty)
- 02
Catches a guillotine or kimura on an opportunistic Song takedown attempt
- 03
Song underestimates Deiveson's right hand and bangs in the pocket without managing range
- 04
Deiveson's cardio holds above expectations and the fight stays even into 25 minutes
Underdog Path
Figueiredo has two paths. Path A (KO): preserved flyweight pop in the hands — land the overhand right or right cross in the pocket when Song closes distance to bang. The Brandon Moreno KO (UFC 263) showed the right hand finishes anyone it lands clean on. Path B (Sub): catch a guillotine off a desperate Song takedown attempt in round 3 or 4 when the cards are slipping away, or hit a kimura in the clinch. Path B is less likely, but Deiveson is technically a BJJ black belt with 7 submission wins out of 25.
Required Conditions
- Land a clean overhand right in the first two rounds before the gas tank dips
- Force a stand-up exchange in the pocket without ceding range to Song
- Survive Song's leg-kick volume in rounds 1-2
- Step on the gas in rounds 4-5 and stress-test Song's cardio if judges haven't locked the cards yet
— Precedent: Figueiredo KO'd Brandon Moreno at UFC 263 in June 2021, proof that the power translates and finishes when it lands. Cejudo at UFC 290 in a controversial decision (when Deiveson was still at flyweight), survived 25 minutes of cardio against an elite wrestler, so the gas tank isn't the worst in the world. But it matters that both of those precedents were at flyweight, not bantamweight.
Verdict
Winner
Song Yadong
Method
Unanimous Decision or late TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Method
Song by Decision
Song is decision-heavy (48% of his wins by decision) and has never been finished in 32 fights. Deiveson hasn't knocked out a single opponent across five bantamweight bouts. Implied is 36%, estimated 42-45%. Moderate edge, the cleanest pick in the fight.
- 02
Total Rounds
Over 3.5 rounds
Song has never been finished, Deiveson has zero bantamweight KOs, and both are coming off UDs. The probability of getting past round 3 is high. Heads-up if Deiveson lands the right hand early, but the statistical trend points to distance.
- 03
Winner
Song
Implied probability 80%, real estimate 60%. Market is overpaying. Taking Song straight has no value — go through the method or parlay with another favorite on the card.
- 04
Underdog Method
Figueiredo by KO/TKO
Contrarian high-risk pick. Only hits if Deiveson lands the right hand in the first 10 minutes. Real probability 15-20%. Implied is 31%, estimated 18%. No direct value — this is a hedge.
Most Likely Outcome
Song by Decision
Biggest direct value on the card. Song is decision-profile (48% of his wins by decision), never been finished in 32 professional fights; Deiveson at bantamweight is decision-heavy too (4 of his 5 fights at 135 went UD). Combines the main pick (Song wins) with the most likely method (decision). Implied is 36% and estimated jumps to 42-45% on the structural history. Edge of 6-9 points, solid.
Stats That Matter
28 vs 38
Age gap between the two
Ten years. In a five-round main event, gas counts double in the championship rounds. Song is in his physical prime.
72% vs 53%
Takedown defense: Song vs Figueiredo
19-point gap. Song almost never shoots (0.53/15min) and Deiveson isn't leaning wrestling-heavy as plan A either.
0
Figueiredo KOs at bantamweight
Zero finishes in five fights at 135 (Font, Garbrandt, Vera, Yan, Jackson, Umar, Sandhagen). The flyweight power didn't carry up.
Song's price
Implied probability 80%, real estimate 60%. Market is overpaying on Song; the true value sits in the method.
The Trap
Trap: Figueiredo by Early KO
The market is going to pay heavy on "Figueiredo by KO/TKO" based on the Brandon Moreno KO (UFC 263, June 2021). Two problems. First, that KO was at flyweight against a 27-year-old Moreno who was a technical striker, not a power puncher. Second, at bantamweight Deiveson hasn't knocked out a single opponent across five fights (Font UD, Garbrandt UD, Vera UD, Yan UD, Jackson UD, Umar UD, Sandhagen TKO injury that wasn't his offense). Song has never been submitted in 32 professional fights and has only been TKO'd once (Sandhagen R4 doctor stoppage on a cut, September 2022). Backing a specific Deiveson finish at long odds is betting against a five-fight bantamweight track record with zero knockouts.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Song "Kung Fu Kid" Yadong vs Deiveson "God of War" Figueiredo | UFC Fight Night: Song vs Figueiredo | May 30, 2026 | Galaxy Arena, Macau