June 6, 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Schnell
17-10-1 (1 NC)
Not rankedShreveport, USA | 35 years old
Costa
15-5-0
Not rankedManaus, Brazil | 30 years old
Battle-Tested Veteran vs The Fresher, Hungrier Finisher
Schnell carries an 8 cm reach edge and veteran savvy, but he's been finished early in three of his last four losses. Costa steps in on short notice replacing Imanol Rodriguez, coming in fresh off a bonus-winning performance in April, and he brings an 86% takedown defense rate that eliminates Schnell's one realistic path. Catchweight 130 lbs, three rounds at the APEX. The market has Costa around, Schnell.
THE CROSSROADS
The Veteran Has One Path. And It's Exactly the Path Costa Shuts Down.
Matt Schnell is one of the grittier veterans in the flyweight division — 17 career wins, ten of them by submission, a legitimate BJJ black belt who is dangerous in scrambles and from his back. The problem is that at 35, the chin conversation has taken over. In his last four losses, he's been stopped early in three: KO against Steve Erceg at 26 seconds of R2, anaconda by Cody Durden at 29 seconds of R2, guillotine by Joseph Morales in R1. When the tide turns on Schnell, it turns fast. On the other side, Alessandro Costa stepped in on short notice to replace Imanol Rodriguez, but he's no placeholder. Costa is a right-hand-heavy flyweight with offensive BJJ and six career finishes, coming in fresh off a performance-bonus TKO in April via body shot that stopped Stewart Nicoll in R2. The question in this fight isn't technical — it's structural. Schnell's one realistic path to winning is to get the fight to the ground and submit his opponent. But Schnell lands only 43% of his takedown attempts, and Costa defends 86%. Schnell can't impose the mat game, and he's actually easy to take down himself. His Plan A runs into the opponent's best stat.
Matt Schnell is one of the grittier veterans in the flyweight division — 17 career wins, ten of them by submission, a legitimate BJJ black belt who is dangerous in scrambles and from his back. The problem is that at 35, the chin conversation has taken over. In his last four losses, he's been stopped early in three: KO against Steve Erceg at 26 seconds of R2, anaconda by Cody Durden at 29 seconds of R2, guillotine by Joseph Morales in R1. When the tide turns on Schnell, it turns fast. On the other side, Alessandro Costa stepped in on short notice to replace Imanol Rodriguez, but he's no placeholder. Costa is a right-hand-heavy flyweight with offensive BJJ and six career finishes, coming in fresh off a performance-bonus TKO in April via body shot that stopped Stewart Nicoll in R2. The question in this fight isn't technical — it's structural. Schnell's one realistic path to winning is to get the fight to the ground and submit his opponent. But Schnell lands only 43% of his takedown attempts, and Costa defends 86%. Schnell can't impose the mat game, and he's actually easy to take down himself. His Plan A runs into the opponent's best stat.
Truth A
Matt Schnell has 17 career wins with ten submissions, a legitimate BJJ black belt, and a real physical edge — 8 cm of reach (178 cm vs 170 cm) and 10 cm of height. He has the experience and the scramble danger that makes him a threat in any five-minute round. Nobody in that cage should sleep on a black belt with ten career submissions. He cannot be written off in a scramble.
Truth B
Alessandro Costa is five years younger, coming off a recent bonus-winning finish, defends 86% of takedowns against Schnell's 43%, and has never been finished in 20 professional fights. He has heavy hands, the ability to punish from the back, and a track record that shows he can go the distance against elite competition (three rounds with Erceg — the same Erceg who knocked Schnell out in 26 seconds). Schnell's chin has failed three times in his last four losses. Costa has the right hand and the cage control to collect.
Tale of the Tape
Schnell born Jan 1990 (35 at fight time). Costa born Jan 1996 (30). Five years of age in Costa's favor — fresher and more active.
Schnell 10 cm taller. A clear height advantage for the veteran.
Schnell with 8 cm extra reach. The veteran's only real physical edge on the feet — but reach doesn't fix a cracked chin.
Schnell is a BJJ black belt working out of orthodox stance. Costa also orthodox, right-hand power.
Veteran Louisiana camp vs Brazilian Warriors between Brazil and Mexico. Costa came in short notice but had a full April camp behind him.
Current Form
Matt Schnell
Caught in a guillotine early. His fourth loss in six fights and his third early submission finish.
Sub R1 (guillotine)Unanimous decision over three rounds. Schnell used experience and reach to control the fight and win the scorecards — the win that kept him on the UFC roster.
Unanimous DecisionCaught in an anaconda at 29 seconds of R2. Another early finish, same pattern.
Sub R2 (anaconda)KO at 26 seconds of R2. Erceg landed a clean right hand and Schnell's chin didn't hold up — the same Erceg who went three rounds with Costa.
KO R2TKO in R2. Nicolau hurt him on the feet and finished on the ground. Another stoppage loss against a ranked opponent.
TKO R2It's been a rough stretch for the veteran. Schnell is coming off a guillotine loss in R1 against Joseph Morales in November 2025 — his third early finish in four fights. Before that, he beat Jimmy Flick by unanimous decision in April 2025, a brief bright spot. But the pattern heading into this fight is alarming: an anaconda choke at 29 seconds of R2 against Cody Durden in September 2024, a KO at 26 seconds of R2 against Steve Erceg in March 2024. Schnell is a legitimate BJJ black belt with ten career submissions, dangerous in scrambles, but at 35 his chin has become a serious question mark. He trains out of Shreveport, Louisiana, and remains one of the most experienced fighters in the division. He's gone 2-4 in his last six.
Alessandro Costa
Body shot KO in R2 against Nicoll. Performance bonus. Costa steps into this one fresh with a recent camp.
TKO R2 (body shot)Competitive fight until Costa caught his toe in the fence and tore his foot at the end of R2. Coria finished a limping opponent. Freak accident, not a conditioning issue.
TKO R3 (punches)TKO R2 with ground-and-pound from the back. Costa imposed his power game on the feet and the mat.
TKO R2 (punches)Dropped a unanimous decision over three full rounds. But Costa survived all 15 minutes without being finished against a top-10 fighter — the same Erceg who knocked Schnell out in 26 seconds.
Unanimous DecisionTKO R2 with ground-and-pound. The same Jimmy Flick that Schnell only beat by decision — Costa finished him.
TKO R2 (punches)Short notice, but he's coming in sharp and active. His last fight was a TKO win in R2 over Stewart Nicoll in April 2026 — a body shot that stopped the fight and earned him a performance bonus — and he had a full camp in the weeks leading up to this one. Before that, the controversial loss: TKO at R3 against Alden Coria in September 2025, but the fight was competitive until Costa caught his toe in the fence and tore his foot at the end of R2, which let Coria finish a hobbled opponent. That wasn't a cardio collapse — it was a freak accident. Before that: TKO R2 over Kevin Borjas in May 2024, a competitive unanimous decision loss to Steve Erceg in November 2023 where he went all three rounds without ever being finished, and TKO R2 over Jimmy Flick in June 2023. Costa is a right-hand-heavy flyweight with offensive BJJ and six career finishes, training with Brazilian Warriors between Brazil and Mexico. At 30, he's five years younger than Schnell, and in 20 professional fights, he has never been finished.
Level of Competition
Two common opponents, and both data points favor Costa. First, Steve Erceg: Costa dropped a competitive unanimous decision over three full rounds without being finished (Nov 2023), while Schnell was knocked out cold by Erceg at 26 seconds of R2 (Mar 2024). Same opponent, completely different durability stories. Second, Jimmy Flick: both men won, but Costa finished him by TKO in R2 while Schnell needed three rounds and a decision. The common-opponent read converges on Costa in both durability and finishing power. The momentum gap matters too — Costa is coming off a bonus-winning finish while Schnell was submitted in the first round of his last fight.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Schnell produces slightly more raw volume. But volume without a durable chin is worth less when exchanges go close range.
Strike Accuracy (%)
Costa five points more accurate. A heavy right hand that lands cleaner at close quarters.
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Schnell absorbs more (4.11). Combined with a recently tested chin, this is the stat that opens the TKO path for Costa.
Strike Defense (%)
Costa defends two more points. Small gap on the feet, but Costa hasn't been finished the way Schnell has.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Neither man is a high-volume wrestler. This stat matters mainly to show that Schnell doesn't impose takedowns as his primary offensive weapon.
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Schnell 45% when he tries, Costa 27%. But accuracy doesn't matter if Costa defends 86% of attempts in the first place.
Takedown Defense (%)
KEY STAT. Costa at 86% (elite) against Schnell's 43%. Schnell's entire game plan is grappling, and Costa closes that door with the best takedown defense in the matchup.
Schnell leads in 2 categories · Costa leads in 5
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both men are finishers, but they get there differently. Schnell is the submission specialist: ten of his 17 wins (59%) have come by sub, making him the most dangerous grappler in this fight on paper. His KO/TKO rate is his lowest category at three wins (18%). Costa is more balanced and more threatening on the feet: six by KO/TKO (40%), six by submission (40%), three by decision (20%). The practical difference is about the path — Schnell needs the ground to win his way, and that's exactly where Costa defends 86% of takedown attempts. Costa can win by right hand or by going to the mat; Schnell essentially has one route.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The most telling stat in the fight. Schnell has ten losses: five by KO/TKO (50%), four by submission (40%), and just one by decision (10%). Nine of his ten losses have come inside the distance — he almost never goes the distance when he's losing. And the recent pattern is alarming: three early stoppages or KOs in his last four defeats (Erceg KO R2, Durden anaconda R2, Morales guillotine R1). Costa has five losses: three by KO/TKO (60%), two by decision (40%), and zero by submission. He has never been submitted in 20 professional fights. For method betting purposes: betting Schnell to submit Costa means betting against a man with zero career submission losses, and betting Costa to stop Schnell means betting into a chin that has already been cracked three times in four fights.
Skills Profile
Schnell
vs
Costa
Striking Power and Accuracy
+2 Costa
Costa has heavier hands and more accuracy (45% vs 40%). Schnell has the volume, but the power edge belongs to the Brazilian.
Takedown Defense
+3 Costa
Costa at 86% TDD against Schnell's 43%. The veteran's only plan — get it to the mat and finish — runs directly into Costa's single best defensive attribute.
Offensive Grappling
+2 Schnell
Schnell is a black belt with ten career submissions, dangerous in scrambles. But Costa has never been submitted in 20 fights. Schnell has the threat; Costa has the defense.
Durability and Damage Resistance
+3 Costa
Schnell has been finished or stopped early in three of his last four losses. Costa has never been finished and his only KO defeats came in specific circumstances. Chin and durability go to Costa.
Freshness and Momentum
+2 Costa
Costa at 30 and fresh off a bonus-winning April finish. Schnell at 35 coming off a first-round guillotine loss. Freshness and activity favor Costa even on short notice.
Physical Reach Advantage
+2 Schnell
Schnell carries 8 cm of reach and 10 cm of height. Real physical advantage on the feet — but it doesn't compensate for the chin gap or Costa's takedown defense.
Schnell has the one threat that can flip the fight (scramble submissions) and a real physical edge in reach and height. But his path is narrow — Costa's 86% takedown defense and his perfect record of never being submitted in 20 fights directly neutralize Schnell's best skill. Costa has the power, the durability, and the freshness to exploit a veteran whose chin has failed three times in four fights. This fight is a race between Schnell finding a scramble finish and Costa collecting on that tested jaw. Costa's floor is higher than Schnell's ceiling.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis: Alessandro Costa wins because Schnell's only realistic path to victory — submission grappling — runs directly into Costa's elite 86% takedown defense, and the veteran's chin has failed in three of his last four losses against the heavy right hand that Costa carries. Costa's floor is higher than Schnell's ceiling.
The thesis: Alessandro Costa wins because Schnell's only realistic path to victory — submission grappling — runs directly into Costa's elite 86% takedown defense, and the veteran's chin has failed in three of his last four losses against the heavy right hand that Costa carries. Costa's floor is higher than Schnell's ceiling.
The path runs through Costa controlling distance, landing his right hand at close range to test that suspect chin, or winning the scorecards on freshness and durability.
This collapses if Schnell catches a scramble submission in the opening minutes.
Conviction
Conviction 8 — not a coin flip despite the short-notice wrinkle — because: (1) the common-opponent read is strong in both directions: Costa went the full three rounds with Erceg in a competitive decision, the same Erceg who knocked Schnell out in 26 seconds, and Costa finished Flick while Schnell only out-pointed him; (2) Costa's 86% takedown defense literally shuts the door on Schnell's Plan A against a guy who only lands 43% of his own attempts; (3) Costa comes in fresh and has never been finished, while Schnell has been stopped early in three of his last four fights; (4) freshness and age both favor Costa even on short notice. It doesn't hit 9 because Schnell's BJJ is a genuine scramble threat, and short-notice always carries gas-tank uncertainty.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Schnell catches a rear-naked choke or guillotine in a scramble within the first ten minutes before Costa can impose his right hand
- 02
The nine-day short-notice timeline costs Costa on conditioning in rounds 2 and 3, and Schnell uses his reach and veteran savvy to win on the cards
Underdog Path
Schnell has essentially one route: drag the exchange to the ground in a chaotic scramble, jump to the back and lock up a rear-naked choke or guillotine before Costa can stabilize. As a legitimate BJJ black belt with ten career submissions, he's the kind of fighter who can sneak a finish if Costa miscalculates on a takedown entry or if an exchange hits the mat awkwardly.
Required Conditions
- Get the fight to the ground via scramble despite Costa's 86% takedown defense
- Survive Costa's right hand in the early minutes without getting his chin cracked
- Use the 8 cm reach advantage to control distance and avoid straight exchanges at close range
- Find the finish early, because distance only favors the fresher Costa as rounds accumulate
— Precedent: Schnell has ten career submissions and is a legitimate black belt, so the rear-naked choke in a scramble is a real credential. But it's worth flagging that Costa has never been submitted in 20 fights and defends 86% of takedowns — meaning Schnell's greatest strength runs into the opponent most specifically built to neutralize it.
Verdict
Winner
Alessandro Costa
Method
TKO or Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Method
Costa by KO/TKO
Schnell absorbs 4.11 strikes per minute, defends only 55% on the feet, and has been stopped early in three of his last four losses. Costa carries heavy hands and has a 40% KO/TKO rate in his wins. Best direct value in the fight — the most likely finish path for the pick.
- 02
Winner
Costa
Implied probability of 85% against an estimated 80%. Correct heavy favorite, but not much direct value at the number. Better to play via method or stack in a parlay with another confident favorite on the card.
- 03
Total Rounds
Fight doesn't go 2.5 rounds (Under)
Schnell rarely sees the final bell when he loses — nine of his ten losses have come by stoppage. Costa has twelve combined finishes in his fifteen wins. Both sides point toward an early ending rather than a decision.
Most Likely Outcome
Costa by KO/TKO
Combines the main pick (Costa wins) with the most likely method (standing stoppage). Schnell has been stopped early in three of his last four losses, absorbs 4.11 strikes per minute, and Costa has the right hand to collect. The implied probability is 40% against a structural estimate of 45-50% given Schnell's recent chin history. Solid edge — the clearest direct value in this matchup.
Stats That Matter
86% vs 43%
Takedown Defense: Costa vs Schnell
A 43-point gap. Schnell's only path (grappling) runs directly into Costa's biggest strength.
0
Submission losses for Costa
Never been submitted in 20 fights. Schnell has ten career subs but needs the mat to use them.
3 of 4
Schnell's recent early stoppages
Erceg KO R2, Durden anaconda R2, Morales guillotine R1. When it turns against him, it turns fast.
The Trap
Trap: Schnell by Submission at Plus Odds
The market will price up 'Schnell by submission' based on his ten career subs and his reputation as a BJJ black belt. But there are two problems. First, Costa has never been submitted in 20 professional fights — zero submission losses. Second, for Schnell to submit anyone he needs to get the fight to the ground, and Costa defends 86% of takedowns while Schnell only lands 43% of his own attempts. Betting a Schnell submission at plus-money means betting against the best defensive stat in this matchup and against a fighter who has never been caught on the mat. The route exists in a scramble — it just doesn't exist as the controlled top-game scenario the bet implies.
The market will price up 'Schnell by submission' based on his ten career subs and his reputation as a BJJ black belt. But there are two problems. First, Costa has never been submitted in 20 professional fights — zero submission losses. Second, for Schnell to submit anyone he needs to get the fight to the ground, and Costa defends 86% of takedowns while Schnell only lands 43% of his own attempts. Betting a Schnell submission at plus-money means betting against the best defensive stat in this matchup and against a fighter who has never been caught on the mat. The route exists in a scramble — it just doesn't exist as the controlled top-game scenario the bet implies.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Matthew "Danger" Schnell vs Alessandro "Nono" Costa | UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim | June 6, 2026 | Meta APEX, Las Vegas
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