July 18, 2026 · Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA
Ricci
12-4-0
#8 Women's StrawweightBrazil | 31 years old
Kline
9-1-0
#11 Women's StrawweightHolbrook, USA | 25 years old
Judo Against Reach
Ricci steps in on short notice for Amanda Ribas, but she brings the stronger resume. Kline brings six inches of reach, a decade less mileage, and a three-fight win streak that keeps climbing.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
Who Imposes Their Own Terrain
This whole fight is a collision of opposite trump cards. On one side, Fatima Kline brings the size, the reach and the momentum: 5-foot-6, a six-inch reach edge, volume-and-accuracy striking, and three straight UFC wins crowned by a head-kick knockout. On the other, Tabatha Ricci brings the judo, the durability and the resume: a solid judoka base, never stopped at strawweight across 11 fights, and experience against the division's absolute elite that Kline hasn't come close to facing. The deciding point is distance. If Kline keeps Ricci at the end of the jab and the kick, she wins all three rounds on volume and accuracy, no drama. But the Brazilian didn't come to trade from range. She came to close, grab and take down, and Kline's takedown defense is just 50%, the same hole Jasudavicius exploited to hand the prospect her only loss. The question isn't who's more technical on the feet, it's Kline. The question is whether Ricci can get through six inches of reach and turn this into a grappling fight before the range devours her.
This whole fight is a collision of opposite trump cards. On one side, Fatima Kline brings the size, the reach and the momentum: 5-foot-6, a six-inch reach edge, volume-and-accuracy striking, and three straight UFC wins crowned by a head-kick knockout. On the other, Tabatha Ricci brings the judo, the durability and the resume: a solid judoka base, never stopped at strawweight across 11 fights, and experience against the division's absolute elite that Kline hasn't come close to facing. The deciding point is distance. If Kline keeps Ricci at the end of the jab and the kick, she wins all three rounds on volume and accuracy, no drama. But the Brazilian didn't come to trade from range. She came to close, grab and take down, and Kline's takedown defense is just 50%, the same hole Jasudavicius exploited to hand the prospect her only loss. The question isn't who's more technical on the feet, it's Kline. The question is whether Ricci can get through six inches of reach and turn this into a grappling fight before the range devours her.
Tale of the Tape
Kline is 6 years younger and far fresher in career mileage
Kline has a 5-inch height edge, huge for strawweight
Kline carries a 6-inch reach edge, the physical advantage that decides the range
Ricci carries the stronger resume, Kline the momentum
Current Form
Tabatha Ricci
UFC Vegas. Faced the division's No. 1 contender and hung with the pace for three rounds, but lost the position and range battles down the stretch. A unanimous decision, a hard fight against the best grappler she's seen.
Unanimous DecisionBeat Amanda Ribas, the exact fighter she now replaces here. Pressure, clinch and a second-round TKO that showed her grappling game still hurts ranked opponents.
TKO R2Fought former title challenger Yan Xiaonan and lost on the cards. Competitive, but she was outworked on volume and range by a bigger, longer striker. A preview of what waits against Kline.
Unanimous DecisionEdged tough veteran Angela Hill on a close decision. A common opponent with Kline: both women beat Hill on the cards, a sign the gap in level between them is closer than the records suggest.
Unanimous DecisionControlled former title challenger Tecia Torres with clinch work and pressure to take the decision. More proof that her game is to grab, pin against the fence and smother strikers.
Split DecisionRicci is in the trickiest stretch of her career. She's won just one of her last three, coming off a decision loss to Virna Jandiroba in April, the division's absolute elite. What holds the read on her is the level of that opposition: both recent losses came against the very top (Jandiroba and Yan Xiaonan), and she still beat Amanda Ribas, the very woman she now replaces on this card. She's the ranked veteran, a solid judoka base, stepping in on short notice against a prospect who keeps rising. The problem isn't experience, it's size.
Fatima Kline
UFC 322, New York. Used range and volume to beat veteran Angela Hill by unanimous decision. Same opponent Ricci beat, same result. A direct parallel in level.
Unanimous DecisionUFC Nashville. Won the striking for two rounds and shut off prospect Melissa Martinez with a head kick in round 3. Performance of the Night and her best showcase of power.
TKO R3Stopped Viktoriia Dudakova with elbows in round 2. Her first strike-based finish in the UFC, showing she knows how to close the show when the fight hits the fence.
TKO R2UFC debut against tough Jasmine Jasudavicius. Lost a unanimous decision, controlled in the grappling by a physically strong opponent. The only loss of her career and the blueprint for troubling her.
Unanimous DecisionCFFC 129. Beat Andressa Romero by decision to defend the title and stamp her ticket to the UFC. Her coronation phase on the regional circuit before the jump.
Unanimous DecisionKline is the picture of a rising prospect. Three straight UFC wins after stumbling in her debut, including a head-kick knockout of Melissa Martinez that earned Performance of the Night. She's big for the division, 5-foot-6 with a six-inch reach edge over Ricci, a volume-and-accuracy striker who also carries a grappling base as a former two-division CFFC champion. The caveat is resume depth: she hasn't beaten anyone in the top 10 yet, and her lone loss showed that when she can't control from the outside, she can be dragged into uncomfortable territory.
Level of Competition
This is where Ricci's biggest edge lives, and it's real. The Brazilian built her record against the upper tier of strawweight: Yan Xiaonan, Virna Jandiroba, Amanda Ribas, Tecia Torres. Her losses came against the division's absolute elite. Kline, by contrast, hasn't beaten anyone in the top 10 yet, made her name against unranked names (Hill, Martinez, Dudakova) and shined on the regional circuit before moving up. Both women beat Angela Hill on the cards, the direct parallel that narrows the gap. But when it comes to quality of opposition, Ricci has seen things Kline never has.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Kline has more volume, helped by the six-inch reach edge
Precisão de Strikes (%)
A clear gap: Kline is far more accurate on the feet
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Ricci absorbs nearly double, a sign she eats shots to get inside
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Takedowns por 15 Min
Ricci attempts more takedowns, consistent with the judo base
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Both post low takedown accuracy on paper. The grappling fight will be decided in the clinch and by position, not by raw attempt volume
Defesa de Takedown (%)
The stat that sustains the upset: Kline's takedown defense is her weak spot
Submissões por 15 Min
Ricci leads in 4 categories · Kline leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The paths to victory differ. Ricci is the more versatile: 7 decisions, 3 submissions and 2 knockouts in 12 wins, the mark of a judoka who knows how to control and smother. Her game is positional attrition, not impact. Kline is more explosive for her career age: 4 knockouts, 4 decisions and 1 submission in 9 wins, with real striking power. It matters for the method: Kline can end it early if she lands clean, but against someone who has never been stopped at this weight, the likeliest scenario is that she builds the win across three rounds.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The loss profiles tell the story. Ricci has 4 defeats: 1 knockout (to Fiorot, up a weight class and on short notice) and 3 decisions, against Yan and Jandiroba from the top of the division, plus Godinez. At strawweight, she's never been stopped, she only goes down on the cards. Kline has a minimal sample, just 1 loss, but it's revealing: a decision in which she was controlled in the grappling by Jasudavicius. In practice: Ricci is too durable to finish and loses when she can't impose the clinch, while Kline gets hurt exactly when someone drags her into a grappling fight. It's a duel over who imposes their own terrain, and the map of Kline's loss points straight to Ricci's game.
Skills Profile
Ricci
vs
Kline
Striking em Distância
+3 Kline
Kline has a six-inch reach edge, more volume (5.01/min) and more accuracy (50%). At range, she dictates everything. Ricci has to close to exist.
Poder de Nocaute
+2 Kline
Kline brings the real power in this fight: 4 knockouts in 9 wins and a head kick that shut off Martinez. Ricci has just 2 KOs and none at strawweight.
Grappling e Clinch
+2 Ricci
Ricci is a judoka by trade, with 3 submissions and a clinch game that controlled Torres and Hill. Kline's takedown defense is just 50%. This is the Brazilian's terrain.
Wrestling
+1 Ricci
Ricci attempts more takedowns (2.51 to 2.02 per 15 min) and comes from judo, but her takedown accuracy is low. Against Kline's 50% defense, it's a subtle edge, not a guaranteed one.
Cardio
Even
Both go three rounds without trouble. Ricci has stretched hard fights against the elite, Kline has gone four rounds in CFFC. Even pace.
Experiência
+3 Ricci
A glaring gap in caliber. Ricci faced Yan Xiaonan, Jandiroba and Ribas. Kline hasn't beaten anyone in the top 10. The Brazilian has seen far deeper water.
Kline wins the standing fight at range: size, reach, volume and power. Ricci wins everything in the grappling and brings the stronger resume in the division. The question isn't who's more dangerous from the outside, it's Kline. The question is whether Ricci can get through six inches of reach, pin to the fence and drag the fight to the terrain where the prospect has already been beaten once.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Fatima Kline wins because she's the bigger, longer, more accurate fighter, in a matchup where a six-inch reach edge weighs heavily against a 5-foot-1 judoka who needs to close the distance to exist. Kline has the volume (5.01 strikes per minute to 4.00), the accuracy (50% to 37%) and the momentum of three straight wins, while Ricci arrives on short notice, 1-2 in her last three and off a loss.
The thesis is: Fatima Kline wins because she's the bigger, longer, more accurate fighter, in a matchup where a six-inch reach edge weighs heavily against a 5-foot-1 judoka who needs to close the distance to exist. Kline has the volume (5.01 strikes per minute to 4.00), the accuracy (50% to 37%) and the momentum of three straight wins, while Ricci arrives on short notice, 1-2 in her last three and off a loss.
The path is Kline keeping Ricci at the end of the jab and the kick, burning the clock at range and banking points across three rounds. It breaks down on the side that keeps conviction low: Kline's takedown defense is just 50%, Ricci is a judoka with a proven clinch game (she controlled Tecia Torres and Angela Hill), and the Brazilian brings a far higher level of competition, having taken the division's elite to decision. If Ricci gets through the reach and turns this into a grappling fight, Kline's favoritism evaporates.
Conviction
Conviction 5, no higher, because this is a style clash with a real, documented upset path. The thesis leans on three dimensions (size and reach, striking volume and accuracy, and momentum), but Ricci carries the trump card that flips fights: a far higher level of competition and a judo game that attacks Kline's exact 50% takedown defense. Jasudavicius already showed the blueprint. What keeps the lean on Kline and doesn't invert it is the size, the six inches of reach that choke off Ricci's entry, the far higher accuracy, and the fact that Ricci arrives on short notice and in a down phase. This isn't a market read: the books have Kline favorite, and I give Ricci more of a chance than the line does, because the edge comes from the grappling and the resume, not the price. It's a coin-flip leaning to the prospect.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Ricci can't get through the six-inch reach edge, she spends the whole night at the end of the strikes and loses a wide decision.
- 02
If Kline defends the takedowns and keeps it standing, her superior volume and accuracy decide all three rounds.
- 03
If Kline's power lands and she shuts Ricci off at range, the only realistic way to stop the Brazilian appears.
- 04
If Ricci completes the takedowns and dominates the clinch the way she did against Torres and Hill, the whole case for Kline's favoritism falls apart.
Underdog Path
Ricci doesn't need to win the striking, she needs to end it. The plan is to get inside, pin against the fence, and use judo to trip or smother Kline in the clinch, exactly the script Jasudavicius followed to hand the prospect her only loss. Kline's 50% takedown defense is the invitation, and Ricci has the base to exploit it. If the Brazilian controls mat and clinch time, she steals rounds and wins a decision the market isn't seeing.
Required Conditions
- Get through the six-inch reach edge and pin to the fence without eating shots on the entry
- Complete takedowns or dominate the clinch, attacking Kline's 50% defense
- Control position and mat time to steal the rounds on the cards
- Weather the range on the feet without getting shut off by Kline's power
— Precedent: Jasudavicius vs Kline (UFC, July 2024): a physically strong fighter controlled Kline in the grappling and won the decision, the prospect's only loss. Ricci is an even more technical judoka in the clinch and on the mat, with a far higher level of competition. The map to flip this fight has already been drawn once.
Verdict
Winner
Fatima Kline
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Fatima Kline
Kline because superior size, reach and accuracy decide a standing fight, and she arrives hot against a veteran on short notice. The price is steep, so it's a small stake, no fat value. Breaks if Ricci gets through the reach and drags it into the clinch.
- 02
Como termina (qualquer lutador)
Fight goes to decision
Decision because Ricci has never been stopped at strawweight and Kline has only finished unranked opposition. High level on both sides tends to stretch the fight. The market pays near even, but it's the soundest read of the night. Breaks if Kline lands a head kick the way she did on Martinez.
- 03
Método (azarão)
Ricci by decision (underdog)
It's the cleanest path to the upset and it pays big: Ricci controls the grappling, steals rounds on the mat and wins the cards, the exact Jasudavicius script against Kline. A conscious longshot, not the main read. Breaks if Ricci can't complete takedowns against the six-inch reach.
Most Likely Outcome
Kline by decision, moderate stake
Kline's size and accuracy tend to win the cards, but Ricci's durability and the prospect's limited finishing game against ranked opponents make a knockout unlikely. Decision is where Kline's edge shows up without needing a finish she rarely gets against someone who has never been stopped at this weight.
Stats That Matter
6
inch reach edge for Kline. Ricci will fight all night against the length
Ricci's biggest physical disadvantage since moving up to face Fiorot at flyweight
ZERO
times Ricci has been stopped at strawweight, across 11 fights in the division. She goes the distance
Her durability turns Kline's power into a smaller factor than it looks
50%
Kline's takedown defense. The hole judoka Ricci needs to exploit to flip the fight
Kline was controlled in the grappling by Jasudavicius in her only career loss
The Trap
Kline inside the distance
The public is all-in on Kline, favorite riding three wins and a head-kick knockout. The trap is imagining she simply runs over a fading veteran and closes the show early. Ricci has NEVER been finished or knocked out at strawweight across 11 fights in the division. She took Yan Xiaonan and Jandiroba, the division's elite, to the scorecards. Betting Kline by finish pays, but it ignores that Ricci is nearly impossible to stop at this weight, and that her grappling attacks the prospect's exact weak spot.
The public is all-in on Kline, favorite riding three wins and a head-kick knockout. The trap is imagining she simply runs over a fading veteran and closes the show early. Ricci has NEVER been finished or knocked out at strawweight across 11 fights in the division. She took Yan Xiaonan and Jandiroba, the division's elite, to the scorecards. Betting Kline by finish pays, but it ignores that Ricci is nearly impossible to stop at this weight, and that her grappling attacks the prospect's exact weak spot.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Tabatha "Baby Shark" Ricci vs Fatima "The Archangel" Kline | UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs Usman | July 18, 2026 | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA
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