May 30, 2026 · Galaxy Arena, Macau
Pavlovich
20-3-0
#3 HeavyweightRussia | 33 years old
Teixeira
9-1-0
#15 HeavyweightVitoria da Conquista, Brazil | 26 years old
Russian Volume vs. Brazilian Power — 15 Minutes to Decide
Pavlovich runs the highest jab output in the top 10 and the deepest resume of opponents in the matchup. Xicao rolls in with 7 KOs in 8 wins, but his chin has cracked twice in his only 2 real tests. This fight is a race — Xicao landing one clean shot in the first 2 minutes, or the Russian imposing volume and turning the screw.
THE POINT THAT DECIDES
The Chin That Has Already Cracked Twice
Xicao Teixeira walks in as the new face of Brazilian heavyweight hype: 9-1, 7 knockouts (all in round 1), black belt, 26 years old, 2.01m, finishing debutants and veterans of another era with legitimate heavy hands. The narrative works until you look at the only two serious tests of his career. In July 2025, Derrick Lewis knocked Xicao out in 35 seconds with a left hook that landed clean on the chin. In January 2026, against Tai Tuivasa (who was riding a 5-fight skid), Xicao won a unanimous decision but nearly went out on his feet in round 3, ate an elbow, hit the floor, and survived the bell by a thread. Two real UFC-level opponents, and the chin broke in both. Pavlovich absorbs 4.24 strikes per minute, with a chin tested by Aspinall and Blaydes, and an SLpM of 5.82 — the highest in the history of the division. Who goes down first is the entire question of the fight.
Xicao Teixeira walks in as the new face of Brazilian heavyweight hype: 9-1, 7 knockouts (all in round 1), black belt, 26 years old, 2.01m, finishing debutants and veterans of another era with legitimate heavy hands. The narrative works until you look at the only two serious tests of his career. In July 2025, Derrick Lewis knocked Xicao out in 35 seconds with a left hook that landed clean on the chin. In January 2026, against Tai Tuivasa (who was riding a 5-fight skid), Xicao won a unanimous decision but nearly went out on his feet in round 3, ate an elbow, hit the floor, and survived the bell by a thread. Two real UFC-level opponents, and the chin broke in both. Pavlovich absorbs 4.24 strikes per minute, with a chin tested by Aspinall and Blaydes, and an SLpM of 5.82 — the highest in the history of the division. Who goes down first is the entire question of the fight.
Truth A
Xicao is the most explosive Brazilian heavyweight in 2026: 7 KOs in 8 wins, all in round 1, 2.01m and 211 cm of reach, physical strength on a different tier for the division. The right cross that put Tafa away in 35 seconds and the one that flattened Lopes on the Contender Series are real. Genuine power in short rounds, and the orthodox-overhand angle against a southpaw is a live trap in the opening 90 seconds.
Truth B
Pavlovich runs the highest SLpM in heavyweight history (5.82, some trackers logging up to 8.72 at peak), has won 15 of 20 fights by KO/TKO, and in the last two has stepped outside the pure KO-artist identity to close two tight cards against Cortes-Acosta and Rozenstruik. The Russian's chin has only cracked against Aspinall and the ground-and-pound of Overeem back in 2018. The caliber of his recent opposition (full top-10 names) is in a different universe from anything Xicao has seen in his entire UFC resume.
Tale of the Tape
Pavlovich was born May 1992 (33 years, 11 days on fight night). Xicao was born December 1999 (26 years, 5 months, 23 days). 7-year age gap in the Russian's account.
Xicao is 10 cm taller. Structural physical edge for the Brazilian.
Pavlovich 213 cm vs. Xicao 211 cm. Even — slight edge for the Russian (2 cm).
Asymmetric stance matchup. Pavlovich southpaw, Xicao orthodox. Open lane for the Brazilian's overhand right, but also for the Russian's straight left. Double-edged sword.
Traditional Russian camp (Pavlovich) against a Brazilian Chute Boxe-style team with BJJ roots (Xicao). Camps at very different calibers in terms of exposure to the top of the division.
Current Form
Sergei Pavlovich
Clear evolution from Pavlovich — two rounds of jab and pressure without forcing the exchange. Cortes-Acosta tried to bait him into a brawl, Pavlovich didn't take it.
Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)First fight back after the Volkov loss. Showed for the first time he could pace himself across 3 rounds.
Unanimous DecisionVolkov dictated range with the jab for 15 minutes. Pavlovich couldn't close the gap and got frustrated. 30-27 across the cards.
Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)Interim title fight. Aspinall caught him with a straight right on the timing, finished it at 1:09 of round 1.
KO R1 (punches, 1:09)Feinted uppercut, straight cross down the pipe, hammerfists on the ground. 6th consecutive R1 KO — the modern heavyweight record streak.
TKO R1 (punches, 3:08)This is the most interesting stretch of Pavlovich's career in terms of evolution. After the Aspinall KO in November 2023, everyone wrote him off as a one-trick KO artist, and the decision loss to Volkov in June 2024 (Saudi Arabia) only reinforced the narrative that he falls apart once the fight goes past round 1. The Russian came back in February 2025 against Rozenstruik with a different plan, controlled the pace over 15 minutes, and closed a UD. Same thing in August 2025 against Waldo Cortes-Acosta (30-27, 29-28, 29-28), this time over a legitimate top-10 opponent. Two straight decisions show Pavlovich has learned how to fight outside of round 1 without panicking — exactly what Xicao needs to disrupt. He's 33, still in his physical prime, training for over a decade in Russia under Andrei Soldatov.
Tallison Teixeira
29-28, 29-28, 29-28. First full 3-round fight in the UFC. Nearly knocked out in round 3 by an elbow — survived on his feet by a thread.
Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)Took the main event on short notice. Lewis landed a left hook on the chin 35 seconds into round 1 — lights out.
KO R1 (punches, 0:35)UFC debut. Elbows and knees in the opening exchange, Tafa folded at 35 seconds.
KO R1 (elbows and knees, 0:35)Contender Series. Clean straight right, UFC contract locked in.
KO R1 (straight right, 1:57)Brazilian regional circuit. Another R1 finish before the UFC leap.
KO R1A meteoric rise for the Brazilian — right up until the real test arrived. He debuted on Contender Series in September 2024 with a straight right at 1:57 over Arthur Lopes and earned the contract. UFC debut in February 2025: 35-second KO of Justin Tafa (elbows and knees). Then he jumped into a main event at UFC on ESPN 70 in July 2025 against Derrick Lewis on short notice and got knocked out in 35 seconds by a left hook. He came back in January 2026 against Tai Tuivasa at UFC 325 Sydney, won a UD with three 29-28 cards — but it was the only time he'd been past round 1 in the UFC, and he nearly got finished in round 3 when Tuivasa landed an elbow that put him on the canvas. He survived on his feet by the skin of his teeth. He's 26, BJJ black belt, training out of the interior of Sao Paulo. The hype is real, but every KO win has come against prospects or veterans well outside the top 30.
Level of Competition
No direct common opponents. The point is the caliber comparison. Pavlovich is 1W-2L against top 5 (TKO R1 win over Blaydes; losses by KO to Aspinall and UD to Volkov), beat Cortes-Acosta (top 10) and Rozenstruik (top 15) by UD. Across 11 UFC fights, he has faced Aspinall, Volkov, Blaydes, Overeem, Cortes-Acosta, and Rozenstruik — all top-15 ranked at some point. Xicao has never faced a top-15 fighter in peak form. Tafa was unranked, Tuivasa was riding a 5-fight losing streak, Lewis is a veteran outside the top 15. The real caliber gap is huge. It doesn't erase the Brazilian's power, but it underlines the division-level jump in this matchup. Tier 1 caliber caveat: real and glaring gap, Pavlovich operates several levels above in level of opposition.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Pavlovich runs the highest SLpM in UFC heavyweight history. Xicao produces less per minute, leaning on explosion.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Pavlovich at 41% accuracy, normal for a pressure striker. Xicao estimated lower, focused on the one-shot finish.
Strikes Absorbed per Min
Pavlovich absorbs a lot (4.24 SApM) — constant open exchanges. Xicao absorbs less only because his opponents fold early.
Strike Defense (%)
Pavlovich at 63% defense, standard technical southpaw. Xicao is barely tested in long rounds.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Neither is an offensive wrestler. Low volumes on both sides.
Takedown Defense (%)
Pavlovich has never been a recurring takedown target. Xicao can neutralize via physical frame.
Pavlovich leads in 5 categories · Teixeira leads in 1
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Similar offensive profiles, but with key context differences. Pavlovich has 15 KOs in 20 wins (75%), a modern record of 6 straight R1 knockouts between 2018 and 2023 before the Aspinall loss. His last 2 wins were UDs (Rozenstruik, Cortes-Acosta) — clear evolution beyond the one-trick KO artist. Xicao has 7 KOs in 9 wins (78%), ALL in round 1, plus 1 submission and 1 decision (Tuivasa). It looks similar on paper, but the difference is the caliber of who went down. Pavlovich's 15 KOs include Blaydes (top 5) and 6 consecutive finishes at a real UFC level. Xicao's 7 KOs are Tafa, Lopes, and regional prospects — nobody top 15. The power is real on both sides, but it was tested in different worlds.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Structural stat that matters in this fight. Pavlovich has 3 career losses, 2 by KO/TKO (Aspinall at 1:09 of round 1 with a counter right, Overeem in 2018 via ground-and-pound) and 1 by decision (Volkov). The Russian's chin pattern is clear: it only breaks against absolutely elite finishers. Xicao has just 1 loss, but it's 100% KO/TKO (Lewis in 35 seconds with a left hook). Small sample, sure, but it's the only real test against legitimate UFC power, and the chin broke instantly. For method betting, this changes the picture. Backing Xicao by finish over Pavlovich is backing the Brazilian to do what only Aspinall and Overeem (top 1-2 and a P4P veteran) have ever managed. Backing Pavlovich by KO/TKO makes structural sense because the Brazilian's chin has already cracked in the exact same round-1 window against an aging Lewis.
Skills Profile
Pavlovich
vs
Teixeira
Striking Volume
+3 Pavlovich
Pavlovich at 5.82 SLpM, the highest in UFC heavyweight history. Xicao is more of a one-shot finisher — raw output per minute is much lower.
Striking at Range
+2 Pavlovich
Pavlovich is a technical southpaw with a consistent jab and clean range management. Xicao is more raw and linear, stand-up striker on the front foot.
Knockout Power
+1 Teixeira
Xicao has 7 KOs in 9 wins, 78% finish rate. Pavlovich has 15 KOs in 20 wins, 75%. Both finish, but Xicao loads up on one shot and Pavlovich relies on cumulative volume.
Striking Defense
+2 Pavlovich
Pavlovich at 63% striking defense vs. an estimated lower number for Xicao. Better southpaw movement and range reads. But Pavlovich also absorbs 4.24 SApM (high). Moderate edge to the Russian.
Grappling and Clinch
Even
Neither is a natural wrestler. Pavlovich doesn't shoot, he stays on the feet. Xicao is a BJJ black belt but has only shown striking in the UFC. Low relevance for this fight.
Cardio Over 3 Rounds
+3 Pavlovich
Pavlovich went 15 full minutes twice in a row in 2025 (Rozenstruik, Cortes-Acosta). Xicao has gone past round 1 just once in his UFC career (Tuivasa) and nearly went out in round 3. Cardio in rounds 2 and 3 is known territory for one and uncharted for the other.
Chin and Durability
+3 Pavlovich
Pavlovich has been finished twice (Aspinall, Overeem), both elite finishers. Elite-tier chin against everyday strikers. Xicao got KO'd by Lewis in 35 seconds and was nearly out cold against Tuivasa — the chin has cracked in 2 of 2 real tests.
Pavlovich has a clear edge in 5 of 7 dimensions (volume, range, defense, cardio, chin). Xicao holds a slight edge in concentrated one-shot finishing power and is even in grappling. The fight is a race between the Brazilian landing one clean shot in the first 90 seconds or the Russian imposing his game from minute 2 onward.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Sergei Pavlovich wins because he runs the highest jab output in the top-10 heavyweights (5.82 SLpM, an outlier number for the division), has a far deeper level of opposition (Aspinall, Blaydes, Volkov, Cortes-Acosta, Rozenstruik vs. a Xicao resume where only Tuivasa and Lewis count as real tests), owns a chin that has been tested by Aspinall and Blaydes (it broke against elite finishers but holds up against everyday strikers), and is facing a Xicao chin that's already documented as vulnerable (35-second KO to Lewis in Jul 2025, nearly knocked out in round 3 by Tuivasa in Jan 2026 where he survived on his feet by a thread).
The thesis is: Sergei Pavlovich wins because he runs the highest jab output in the top-10 heavyweights (5.82 SLpM, an outlier number for the division), has a far deeper level of opposition (Aspinall, Blaydes, Volkov, Cortes-Acosta, Rozenstruik vs. a Xicao resume where only Tuivasa and Lewis count as real tests), owns a chin that has been tested by Aspinall and Blaydes (it broke against elite finishers but holds up against everyday strikers), and is facing a Xicao chin that's already documented as vulnerable (35-second KO to Lewis in Jul 2025, nearly knocked out in round 3 by Tuivasa in Jan 2026 where he survived on his feet by a thread).
The path is for Pavlovich to work jab and pressure from range in round 1 without giving up center cage, avoid an open exchange in the first 90 seconds, slot in an elbow or counter cross when Xicao opens his guard to swing, and capitalize on the follow-up volume. If he gets through round 1 without taking a clean shot, he closes the cards comfortably or finishes in round 2 or 3.
This collapses if Xicao lands an overhand right or a clean cross in the first 2 minutes against a poorly positioned southpaw Pavlovich.
Conviction
Conviction 7 (not 8 or 9) because, first, heavyweight is volatile by definition. One clean shot changes everything, and Xicao has 7 knockouts in short rounds, so his early KO is a real threat in the first 2 minutes. Second, Pavlovich was finished by Aspinall at 1:09 of round 1, so the Russian's chin does crack against genuine power landed clean. Third, this is a 3-round fight, not 5, so Xicao doesn't need an absurd gas tank — he just needs to survive 9 minutes in the worst case. But 4 dimensions converge on Pavlovich: offensive volume at 5.82 SLpM against a Xicao who has only fought UFC bottom-of-the-card and veterans, (b) cardio, since Xicao had never been past round 1 before Tuivasa where he nearly went out in round 3, (c) caliber of recent opposition, two UDs over Cortes-Acosta and Rozenstruik show Pavlovich has evolved beyond the one-trick KO artist, (d) the Xicao chin pattern has already cracked twice in 2 real tests (Lewis in 35 seconds, Tuivasa nearly out) while Pavlovich's chin has only broken against absolutely elite finishers.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Xicao lands a clean overhand right or cross in the first 90 seconds of round 1 (Aspinall 2023 blueprint)
- 02
Pavlovich repeats what happened against Volkov — can't close the distance, gets frustrated, drops all 3 rounds on tight cards
- 03
Xicao weathers round 1 without taking clean damage and forces a clinch against the fence, neutralizing the Russian's jab
- 04
Pavlovich comes in raw for the open exchange in the early minutes like he did against Aspinall and offers his chin on the wrong timing
Underdog Path
Xicao has one central path. Path A (early KO). Plant the feet at range in the first 90 seconds, land the overhand right or the cross when Pavlovich pressures forward with volume. It's the blueprint Aspinall used to finish the Russian at UFC 295, but it requires genuine power and clean timing. Xicao has 7 KOs in 8 wins (all in round 1), so the early KO is in his DNA. Path B isn't realistic. Xicao has never gone past round 1 in a win before Tuivasa, and when he did, he nearly got knocked out in round 3.
Required Conditions
- Land a clean overhand right or cross within the first 90 seconds before Pavlovich warms up the jab
- Force Pavlovich onto the fence instead of letting him circle in the center
- Capitalize on the southpaw-vs-orthodox angle (Pavlovich southpaw, Xicao orthodox, open lane for the overhand)
- Avoid open close-range exchanges lasting more than 20 seconds straight (gas tank and chin concern)
— Precedent: Xicao has 7 first-round finishes in 8 career wins, including Justin Tafa in 35 seconds and Arthur Lopes in 1:57. Genuine power in short rounds. But the caliber of those opponents is regional or UFC bottom-of-the-card, never a ranked top-15 fighter. The only two real UFC tests were Derrick Lewis (35-second KO loss for the Brazilian) and Tuivasa (UD where he was nearly finished in round 3). Aspinall finishing Pavlovich at 1:09 of round 1 at UFC 295 with a counter right is the exact historical precedent for Path A.
Verdict
Winner
Sergei Pavlovich
Method
TKO or Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Method (Pavlovich wins)
Pavlovich by TKO or Decision
Combines the main pick with the two most likely paths to it. Pavlovich wins by TKO if Xicao gives up the chin in round 2 or 3 once the gas tank dips (Tuivasa pattern). Pavlovich wins by decision if Xicao falls into survival mode. The implied probability is 36%, the true number sits closer to 50-55% based on the back-to-back UDs. Clear edge, the best direct value on the board.
- 02
Total Rounds
Under 2.5 rounds
Xicao has never been past round 1 in a KO win. Pavlovich has 15 KOs in 20 wins, all before round 3. The only two scenarios where this stretches to a full 15 minutes are a Pavlovich UD or a Xicao survival UD, and both demand 9 minutes of open heavyweight exchanges without a KO. Statistically tough. Under 2.5 pays well.
- 03
Winner
Pavlovich
True probability estimated at 68%, implied = 68%. No massive edge on the straight pick, but the structural thesis is solid (4 converging dimensions). Taking Pavlovich via the method (TKO or Decision) has more value than the straight ML.
- 04
Specific Method
Pavlovich by KO or TKO in round 1
Plausible scenario but not the dominant one. Pavlovich had 6 consecutive R1 KOs before Aspinall, and Xicao already dropped in 35 seconds to Lewis. If the Russian shows up as the pre-Aspinall version, an R1 KO is on the table. The implied 22%, estimated 25-30%. Moderate edge, conservative value play.
Most Likely Outcome
Pavlovich by TKO or Decision
The biggest direct value on the board. Combines the main thesis (Pavlovich wins) with the two most likely finishing paths. Pavlovich has 15 KOs in 20 wins but the last 2 were UDs, which shows late KO and decision are both live routes. Implied is 36% and estimated runs 50-55% based on his pattern of closing once he's up after a round and on Xicao's track record of never going past round 1. 15+ points of edge, solid.
Stats That Matter
5.82
Pavlovich's SLpM — the highest in heavyweight history
Paired with 4.24 SApM (also high), it confirms an extreme offensive identity. Raw volume is the dimension where the Russian dismantles the Brazilian.
2 of 2
Times Xicao's chin has cracked in 2 real UFC tests
35-second KO loss to Lewis (Jul 2025) and nearly out cold in round 3 against Tuivasa (Jan 2026). Small sample, but two consecutive data points is a pattern.
1 of 8
Xicao wins that have gone past round 1
Just Tuivasa, and it was the only time he had ever stretched past 5 minutes. Cardio over rounds 2 and 3 against a volume striker is uncharted territory.
The Trap
Trap: Xicao by KO at inflated odds
The market is going to pay heavily on Xicao by KO based on the 7 career knockouts and the mystique of Brazilian heavyweight power. Be careful. Pavlovich has only been finished twice in 20 wins and 3 losses, and both times were against genuinely elite finishers (Aspinall, the top 1-2 in the division, and Overeem in 2018 via ground-and-pound). Xicao has beaten Tafa, Tuivasa, and prospects — he has never faced a top-10 opponent. Betting Xicao by a specific finish at long odds is betting that he can do, in short rounds, what only Aspinall has pulled off across Pavlovich's 20+ professional fights. The real probability exists (Path A in the underdog scenario), but the market is going to overpay.
The market is going to pay heavily on Xicao by KO based on the 7 career knockouts and the mystique of Brazilian heavyweight power. Be careful. Pavlovich has only been finished twice in 20 wins and 3 losses, and both times were against genuinely elite finishers (Aspinall, the top 1-2 in the division, and Overeem in 2018 via ground-and-pound). Xicao has beaten Tafa, Tuivasa, and prospects — he has never faced a top-10 opponent. Betting Xicao by a specific finish at long odds is betting that he can do, in short rounds, what only Aspinall has pulled off across Pavlovich's 20+ professional fights. The real probability exists (Path A in the underdog scenario), but the market is going to overpay.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Sergei Pavlovich vs Tallison "Xicao" Teixeira | UFC Fight Night: Song vs Figueiredo | May 30, 2026 | Galaxy Arena, Macau
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