June 6, 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Leavitt
13-3-0
Unranked FeatherweightLas Vegas, USA | 31 years old
Brito
18-5-1
Unranked FeatherweightSanta Helena, Brazil | 31 years old
The Vegas Grappler vs The Hard-Handed Shark
Leavitt just beat the undefeated del Valle with four takedowns and nearly eight minutes of control in a clear but competitive decision (29-28 across the board). Brito has a 41-second KO on his resume and real power, but he's been neutralized by grapplers in both of his most recent losses (Sabatini UD, Gomis SD). The market opened Brito as a heavy favorite, but the fighter with the higher floor in this prelim is the underdog Leavitt. Whoever dictates the phase wins.
WHO DICTATES THE PHASE
Brito Bites Early. But If Leavitt Survives Round One, the Mat Is His.
This prelim is a clash of competing game plans. Jordan Leavitt is a wrestling-first fighter, a purple belt, a specialist in taking people down and grinding out top control. He just did exactly that against the undefeated Yadier del Valle in February 2026 — four takedowns, 7:57 of control, a clear but competitive unanimous decision (29-28 across the board) against a prospect nobody had cracked, with del Valle still coming forward in round three. Before that, he choked out Kurt Holobaugh with an anaconda in the first. Joanderson Brito is the opposite: a heavy-handed striker with a 41-second KO of Andre Fili on his record, eight knockouts in his career, round-one explosion that nobody wants to stand in front of. The problem for Brito is what happens when the early KO doesn't come. His two most recent losses — Pat Sabatini by unanimous decision and William Gomis by split decision — played out the same way: someone clinched early, controlled the opening minutes, and Brito checked out of the fight. Sabatini smothered him and dominated the first seven minutes; Gomis climbed on top and kept him there. The mechanism that beats Brito is exactly what Leavitt does for a living. The question in this fight isn't technical — it's about survival: can Leavitt's chin hold up through Brito's round-one power window? If it can, Leavitt's floor (takedown, top control, pressure decision) is high and replicable. Brito's floor when his early finish doesn't land is not.
This prelim is a clash of competing game plans. Jordan Leavitt is a wrestling-first fighter, a purple belt, a specialist in taking people down and grinding out top control. He just did exactly that against the undefeated Yadier del Valle in February 2026 — four takedowns, 7:57 of control, a clear but competitive unanimous decision (29-28 across the board) against a prospect nobody had cracked, with del Valle still coming forward in round three. Before that, he choked out Kurt Holobaugh with an anaconda in the first. Joanderson Brito is the opposite: a heavy-handed striker with a 41-second KO of Andre Fili on his record, eight knockouts in his career, round-one explosion that nobody wants to stand in front of. The problem for Brito is what happens when the early KO doesn't come. His two most recent losses — Pat Sabatini by unanimous decision and William Gomis by split decision — played out the same way: someone clinched early, controlled the opening minutes, and Brito checked out of the fight. Sabatini smothered him and dominated the first seven minutes; Gomis climbed on top and kept him there. The mechanism that beats Brito is exactly what Leavitt does for a living. The question in this fight isn't technical — it's about survival: can Leavitt's chin hold up through Brito's round-one power window? If it can, Leavitt's floor (takedown, top control, pressure decision) is high and replicable. Brito's floor when his early finish doesn't land is not.
Truth A
Jordan Leavitt is a market underdog ( against him) with three career losses, all by submission, and a takedown defense cited at just 30%. But he's the one who dictates the phase of this fight: he takes people down and controls them. Against del Valle he had four takedowns and 7:57 of control across three rounds, a clear and competitive decision. His opponent tonight has already been demonstrably neutralized by this exact game plan (Sabatini and Gomis), so the path to the higher floor is concrete.
Truth B
Joanderson Brito is a legitimate favorite: 18-5-1, eight KOs, seven submissions, real round-one power (Fili in 41 seconds, Wilson, Lopes on the Contender Series). When he connects early, it's over. The central uncertainty in the other side of this pick is Leavitt's chin — it has never been tested against pop at this level. If Brito lands clean in the first five minutes, the night ends right there.
Tale of the Tape
Same age, same birth year (1995). No youth advantage for either fighter.
Leavitt is 2 cm taller. Minimal height difference.
Brito has 3 cm more reach. Slight range advantage for the Brazilian in the stand-up.
Matching stances: southpaw vs orthodox. Cross-stance stand-up, open angles for the rear hand of each fighter.
Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas (wrestling and top control) vs Chute Boxe in Brazil (Muay Thai and heavy hands). High-caliber camps, opposing philosophies.
Current Form
Jordan Leavitt
Four takedowns, 7:57 of ground control, a clear but competitive unanimous decision (29-28 across the board) over an undefeated prospect. Cardio was steady even with del Valle pressing in round three.
Unanimous DecisionAnaconda in round one at 1:39, after threatening with takedowns. A clean finish.
Sub R1 (anaconda)Hooper reversed position and locked up the rear-naked choke in round one. Leavitt's ground vulnerability exposed.
Sub R1 (rear-naked choke)TKO in round one. Ground pressure and ground-and-pound against a less complete opponent.
TKO R1Pimblett locked up the rear-naked choke in round two in a buzzed-about main event. Leavitt gave up the back and got submitted.
Sub R2 (rear-naked choke)A rebuild on the foundation that always worked. Leavitt is riding back-to-back wins that show his game is fully intact. In February 2026, he beat the undefeated Yadier del Valle by unanimous decision — four takedowns, 7:57 of ground control, a clear but competitive 29-28 on all three cards — with the gas tank holding firm even as del Valle pushed forward in round three. Before that, in May 2025, he finished Kurt Holobaugh with an anaconda in round one at 1:39 after threatening with takedowns. His three career losses tell the real story of his risk profile: all three were submissions, including rear-naked chokes from Paddy Pimblett (R2, Jul 2022) and Chase Hooper (R1, Nov 2023). When someone reverses position on him, Leavitt is in danger on the mat. But he's never been knocked out in 16 professional fights. He trains at Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas, a grappling-focused camp built around ground control. Southpaw, 31, fighting at home.
Joanderson Brito
UD 29-28 across the board over a late-notice debutant. Won on pressure, not flash.
Unanimous DecisionSabatini clinched early and controlled the first seven minutes, smothering Brito for three rounds (30-26, 30-26, 30-27). The pattern of being dominated on the mat.
Unanimous DecisionUFC Paris. Gomis climbed on top and kept Brito on his back. Tight SD that exposed the vulnerability to top control.
Split DecisionUFC 301 on home turf. Doctor's stoppage in round two against a dangerous Welsh grappler. The power window opened and he capitalized.
TKO R2 (doctor's stoppage)Ninja choke in round two. A finish that shows Brito also has a ground game when he's on top.
Sub R2 (ninja choke)An uneven recovery after running into grapplers who took him off his game. Brito picked up a win in December 2025 — unanimous decision over late-notice debutant Isaac Thomson (29-28 across the board) — but it was a pressure win, not a highlight reel. The two fights before that were revealing losses: Pat Sabatini by unanimous decision in April 2025 (30-26, 30-26, 30-27), with Sabatini clinching early and controlling the first seven minutes; and William Gomis by split decision in September 2024 at UFC Paris, with Gomis climbing on top and keeping Brito on his back. The pattern is clear: when the early KO doesn't land, Brito loses the phase and disappears. But the power is real and documented — KO of Andre Fili in 41 seconds (Apr 2022), TKO of Westin Wilson in round one (Jul 2023), ninja choke of Jonathan Pearce in round two (Nov 2023), doctor's stoppage of Jack Shore in round two (UFC 301, May 2024), and the Contender Series win over Diego Lopes that earned him his UFC contract. Chute Boxe, 31, orthodox stance, genuine knockout pop.
Level of Competition
No direct common opponents. The most useful caliber proxy is looking at the style of fighters who defeated each man. Brito lost to grapplers who took him down and controlled him (Sabatini UD, Gomis SD) — exactly Leavitt's archetype. Leavitt lost to deep-game submission artists (Pimblett, Hooper, both rear-naked chokes) — an archetype Brito also fits with seven career submissions. In other words, each fighter falls to what the other does best, and this fight becomes a race: Brito needs the early KO or sub, Leavitt needs to clinch, take him down, and control. Recent resume caliber is essentially equivalent for both — working around the top-15 to top-25 featherweight range with no top-five tests yet.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Brito generates slightly more raw volume, but it's explosive volume. Leavitt economizes his output to set up the takedown.
Strike Accuracy (%)
Leavitt lands more cleanly in the aggregate (57% vs 51%), partly because he works more in the clinch and on the ground.
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Leavitt absorbs significantly less (1.59 vs 2.32). Brito takes more damage when exchanges stretch out.
Strike Defense (%)
Leavitt at 59% vs Brito at 44%. Better stand-up defense helps Leavitt navigate Brito's round-one power window.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Both attempt similar takedown volume on paper. The difference is intent: Leavitt takes people down to control and dominate from top; Brito's takedowns are opportunistic.
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Brito hits 68% accuracy when he shoots — but his usage is more opportunistic. Leavitt sits at 34%, but with volume and chain-wrestling to top control.
Takedown Defense (%)
STAT BRAKE. Leavitt defends only 30% and Brito defends 48%. This is the number that keeps the pick at a lean rather than a confident call — if Brito reverses and gets on top, the ground becomes a threat for Leavitt too.
Leavitt leads in 3 categories · Brito leads in 4
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Opposite finishing profiles. Leavitt is a ground finisher and a top-control grinder: seven of his 13 wins by submission (54%), four by decision (31%), and just two by KO/TKO (15%). His most recent marquee win was the clear decision over del Valle. Brito is an explosive striker with a ground game: eight of his 18 wins by KO/TKO (44%), seven by submission (39%), and three by decision (17%). For method betting, the structural number that matters is this: Leavitt almost never wins on the feet — he wins by dragging the fight to the mat and controlling from top, which is exactly the path that neutralizes Brito.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
This is where the risk in the pick lives — and also where the thesis sits. Leavitt has three losses and every single one is a submission: two rear-naked chokes (Pimblett, Hooper) and one other submission, zero KOs. He's never been knocked out in 16 pro fights, but he is finishable when he loses position and the takedown defense number of 30% underlines it. Brito has five losses: three by decision (60%, including Sabatini and Gomis, both controlled on the mat), one by KO/TKO (20%), and one by submission (20%). For method betting: Brito's pattern of losing by decision when a grappler controls him is the base-case scenario for the pick. The nightmare scenario for Leavitt is Brito landing the round-one KO or reversing on the ground and finishing.
Skills Profile
Leavitt
vs
Brito
Wrestling and Ground Control
+3 Leavitt
Leavitt is a wrestling-first fighter, a purple belt who chains takedowns and dominates from top position. Against del Valle: four takedowns, 7:57 of control. This is the game plan that dictates the fight.
Knockout Power
+3 Brito
Brito has real pop: KO of Fili in 41 seconds, eight knockouts on his record, round-one explosion that can end any fight. Leavitt has never faced this level of power.
Offensive Grappling / Submission Game
Even
Leavitt has seven submissions in 13 wins with a recent anaconda. Brito has seven submissions and finished Pearce with a ninja choke. Real threats from both sides on the ground.
Strike Defense and Chin
+2 Leavitt
Leavitt absorbs 1.59 per minute and defends 59% on the feet, never knocked out in 16 fights. Brito absorbs 2.32 and defends just 44%. Defensive edge goes to the American.
Takedown Defense and Bottom Game
+2 Brito
REAL BRAKE. Leavitt defends only 30% of takedown attempts and all three of his losses are submissions. If Brito reverses position and gets on top, the ground turns dangerous for Leavitt too.
Three-Round Conditioning
+2 Leavitt
Leavitt showed a full three-round gas tank against del Valle. Brito tends to drop in output when he loses the phase and the fight goes long.
Brito has a clear edge in the round-one power window: if he connects clean early, he finishes. Leavitt has the structural advantage if the fight gets past the first five minutes — he dictates the phase (takedown, top control, top pressure) and his opponent is demonstrably vulnerable to exactly that game (Sabatini, Gomis). The brake on the pick is honest: Leavitt's takedown defense is only 30% and all three of his losses are submissions, so the mat is not a one-way street. This fight is a race between the Shark's early finish and the Monkey King's replicable control game.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Leavitt wins because he dictates the phase (takedowns and top control) and his floor is high and replicable — four takedowns, 7:57 of control in a clear decision over the undefeated del Valle — while Brito's floor is low and he's already been neutralized by this exact game in his two most recent losses (Sabatini UD, Gomis SD).
Leavitt wins because he dictates the phase (takedowns and top control) and his floor is high and replicable — four takedowns, 7:57 of control in a clear decision over the undefeated del Valle — while Brito's floor is low and he's already been neutralized by this exact game in his two most recent losses (Sabatini UD, Gomis SD).
This collapses if Brito lands clean in round one before the first takedown, or if he reverses position on the mat and exploits Leavitt's weak submission defense (30% takedown defense, three losses all by submission).
Conviction
Conviction 6 — a lean, not a strong pick — because the mechanism for Leavitt is concrete and the opponent is demonstrably vulnerable to it, but there are two real non-cosmetic brakes: Leavitt's three losses are all submissions and his takedown defense is poor, so the mat is not a one-way street; and Brito's round-one power is documented (41-second KO of Fili, eight knockouts), with Leavitt's chin never tested against this level of pop. This is an underdog call on floor, taken honestly as a lean.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Brito lands clean in round one before Leavitt can clinch and take him down (his calling card — KO of Fili in 41 seconds)
- 02
Brito reverses position on the ground, climbs on top, and uses any of his seven submissions against Leavitt's 30% takedown defense
Underdog Path
Brito wins by KO/TKO in round one by landing his heavy hands clean before the first takedown attempt, or by submission after reversing top position and capitalizing on Leavitt's weak takedown defense.
Required Conditions
- Land clean in the first five to seven minutes, before the clinch and the takedown attempt
- Defend Leavitt's initial takedown attempt and not give up the back
- If taken down, reverse to top position and attack with submissions rather than staying on the bottom
— Precedent: Brito KO'd Andre Fili in 41 seconds and stopped Jack Shore by doctor's TKO in round two at UFC 301 — when the power window opens, he closes shows fast. And all three of Leavitt's losses are submissions (Pimblett and Hooper, both rear-naked chokes), which means he can be finished when he loses position.
Verdict
Winner
Jordan Leavitt
Method
Decision (control)
Most Likely
- 01
Winner Underdog
Leavitt to win
The main pick and the best value in the fight. Implied at ~30%, estimated at ~56% on the floor criterion: Leavitt dictates the phase and Brito has already been neutralized by this exact game. Market underdog, higher floor.
- 02
Method
Leavitt by Decision
The base-case outcome of the thesis: takedown, control, scorecards. Leavitt wins 31% of his fights by decision and Brito loses 60% of his defeats by decision (Sabatini, Gomis). Combines the right side with the most likely method at a fat underdog price.
- 03
Total Rounds
Fight goes over 1.5 rounds (Over)
Hedges the biggest risk in the pick (Brito's round-one KO threat) and follows the control thesis. If the fight crosses into round two, the advantage shifts firmly to Leavitt. Smart protection for anyone wary of the Shark's early power.
Most Likely Outcome
Leavitt to win
The best direct value on the card. The market is pricing the highlight — Brito's round-one KO — and ignoring the most probable scenario: Leavitt clinching, taking him down, and controlling an opponent who lost his last two fights exactly that way. Implied ~30% against an estimated ~56% is a wide edge. For anyone worried about round one, the safer version is Over 1.5 rounds combined with the moneyline.
Stats That Matter
4 TDs / 7:57
Leavitt's last fight (del Valle)
Three rounds of control in a clear but competitive decision over an undefeated prospect. The top-control floor is documented and replicable.
2 straight losses
Brito controlled on the mat
Sabatini UD and Gomis SD: both recent losses came from being pinned down by grapplers.
30%
Leavitt's takedown defense
The real brake on the thesis. If Brito reverses position and climbs on top, the ground cuts both ways.
Leavitt as underdog
Implied probability ~30%, estimated at ~56%. The value is on the higher-floor side.
The Trap
Trap: Brito by KO at Favorite Pricing
The market is going to pile money onto Brito and onto "Brito by KO/TKO" because of the Fili highlight and the Chute Boxe brand. But there are two real holes in that logic. First, the early KO is just one slice of the outcome distribution — in his two most recent fights against grapplers, Brito didn't come close to that scenario; he got controlled and lost on the cards. Second, the most likely full-fight scenario is the one that pays the least for a Brito method bet: a pressure decision, except it goes Leavitt's way. on a man who loses the phase against the exact archetype he's facing here means paying for the highlight, not the probability.
The market is going to pile money onto Brito and onto "Brito by KO/TKO" because of the Fili highlight and the Chute Boxe brand. But there are two real holes in that logic. First, the early KO is just one slice of the outcome distribution — in his two most recent fights against grapplers, Brito didn't come close to that scenario; he got controlled and lost on the cards. Second, the most likely full-fight scenario is the one that pays the least for a Brito method bet: a pressure decision, except it goes Leavitt's way. on a man who loses the phase against the exact archetype he's facing here means paying for the highlight, not the probability.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Jordan "The Monkey King" Leavitt vs Joanderson "Tubarão" Brito | UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim | June 6, 2026 | Meta APEX, Las Vegas
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