July 25, 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Kuniev
13-3-1
#8 HeavyweightMakhachkala, Dagestan, Russia | 34 years old
Fortune
18-3-0
#9 HeavyweightPortland, Oregon, USA | 36 years old
One Takedown Decides Everything
Kuniev stuffed 13 straight Blaydes takedowns and walled off Almeida. Fortune has exactly one path to victory, and it's the one Kuniev just slammed shut twice.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
Kuniev Already Passed This Test
This entire fight fits into one question: does Tyrell Fortune's takedown land or not? Because if it doesn't, there is no plan B. And Fortune's problem is that Kuniev just turned this exact test into his specialty. In his debut against Curtis Blaydes, statistically the best wrestler in the division's history, Kuniev gave up two early takedowns, then stuffed 13 attempts in a row, busted Blaydes up in round 2, and dropped a debated split decision that one judge scored his way. Five months later he drew Jailton Almeida, the most active grappler at heavyweight, and simply switched off the Brazilian's game: defended the entries, won every extended clinch sequence on the fence, and took a unanimous decision. That's 93% takedown defense built against the absolute elite of the division in that department. On the other side, Fortune's wrestling credentials are real and arguably better on paper: 2014 University World champion in freestyle, NCAA Division II national champion, Greco-Roman pedigree going back to his teens. In his UFC debut he planted veteran Marcin Tybura in round 1 and won on the cards. But MMA isn't pure wrestling. Fortune's entries run through pressure and fence clinches, precisely the terrain where Kuniev disarmed Blaydes and Almeida. And when the takedown doesn't land, what's left is 2.00 significant strikes per minute, the lowest striking volume among the division's ranked names, at age 36, against a Wushu Sanda world champion who nearly doubles that output at 55% accuracy.
This entire fight fits into one question: does Tyrell Fortune's takedown land or not? Because if it doesn't, there is no plan B. And Fortune's problem is that Kuniev just turned this exact test into his specialty. In his debut against Curtis Blaydes, statistically the best wrestler in the division's history, Kuniev gave up two early takedowns, then stuffed 13 attempts in a row, busted Blaydes up in round 2, and dropped a debated split decision that one judge scored his way. Five months later he drew Jailton Almeida, the most active grappler at heavyweight, and simply switched off the Brazilian's game: defended the entries, won every extended clinch sequence on the fence, and took a unanimous decision. That's 93% takedown defense built against the absolute elite of the division in that department. On the other side, Fortune's wrestling credentials are real and arguably better on paper: 2014 University World champion in freestyle, NCAA Division II national champion, Greco-Roman pedigree going back to his teens. In his UFC debut he planted veteran Marcin Tybura in round 1 and won on the cards. But MMA isn't pure wrestling. Fortune's entries run through pressure and fence clinches, precisely the terrain where Kuniev disarmed Blaydes and Almeida. And when the takedown doesn't land, what's left is 2.00 significant strikes per minute, the lowest striking volume among the division's ranked names, at age 36, against a Wushu Sanda world champion who nearly doubles that output at 55% accuracy.
Truth A
In pure wrestling credentials, Fortune is the most decorated opponent Kuniev has ever faced: a University World champion with an elite Greco base who landed three takedowns on a top-10 veteran in his debut, on two weeks' notice.
Truth B
Mat credentials don't take anyone down by themselves. In MMA, Fortune's takedowns come through clinch and fence pressure, and that's exactly where Kuniev beat Almeida round after round and frustrated Blaydes for 13 straight attempts.
Tale of the Tape
Fortune turned 36 three weeks before the fight
A dead heat in reach
Current Form
Rizvan Kuniev
Beat the division's most active grappler by shutting everything down: stuffed the takedowns, dominated the fence clinches, and took the cards. An ugly fight, he gave himself a C afterward, but it was a complete tactical disarming.
Unanimous DecisionUFC debut in Baku. Gave up two early takedowns, then stuffed 13 straight and left Blaydes swollen and gasping in round 2. Lost a split (29-28, 29-28, 28-29) that's still debated today.
Split DecisionContender Series. Broke down the Brazilian prospect with a knee to the body and ground-and-pound at 4:59 of round 1. Contract earned on the spot.
TKO R1Outpointed the man who would go on to become PFL champion, but the result was overturned to a no contest after Kuniev's own failed drug test, which drew a lengthy suspension.
No ContestGuillotine in 1:17 over the former UFC veteran at Eagle FC. The kind of quick finish that never let the fight exist.
Sub R1Two UFC fights, two top-10-level performances: a debated split against No. 5 Curtis Blaydes that plenty of observers scored for him, and the win over No. 6 Jailton Almeida that put him in the rankings. His form is solid, his fight-reading is ice cold, and he publicly complained that he wanted bigger names than Fortune, calling for Waldo Cortes-Acosta or a Blaydes rematch. The historical caveat: in 2023 his win over Renan Ferreira was overturned to a no contest after a failed drug test, followed by a long suspension. Since returning, he's put together three clean performances against steadily rising competition.
Tyrell Fortune
UFC debut on two weeks' notice. Heavy takedown and control in round 1, coasted too much in round 2, held on late: 30-27, 29-28, 29-28. Buffer read the wrong winner and had to call him back into the cage.
Unanimous DecisionLXF 27. Won by doctor stoppage in the third round while dominating a regional-circuit veteran.
TKO R3RUF 64. Knockout in 45 seconds. It served its purpose: reminding the market that his hands erase people at this level.
KO R1LXF 24. First step of the regional rebuild after leaving the PFL, a second-round knockout.
KO R2PFL playoffs. Caught in a heel hook in two minutes by the Russian he'd beaten by disqualification in 2023. The loss that sent him back to the regional circuit to start over.
Sub R1Four straight wins, but context matters: three came on the regional circuit (LXF and RUF) during the rebuild after getting heel-hooked in the 2024 PFL playoffs. The UFC debut was the feel-good story: he stepped in on two weeks' notice for the injured Valter Walker, beat top-10 stalwart Marcin Tybura on the cards, and lived through Bruce Buffer announcing the wrong winner before the correction. Fortune himself said he was upset with the performance and promised more with a real camp. At 36, this is the first full training camp of his life for a UFC fight.
Level of Competition
Zero common opponents, and that's where the asymmetry of this fight lives. Kuniev's last two fights came against the No. 5 and No. 6 ranked heavyweights, the two best grapplers in the division, and he left with a win and a debated split. Fortune's four-fight streak contains one UFC-level fight (Tybura, a top-10 name at the tail end of his run) surrounded by three regional-circuit opponents. Bellator-era Fortune faced decent names (Mitrione, Vassell, Tim Johnson), but that was 2019 to 2022. On the recent sample, Kuniev lives on a floor of the division that Fortune is visiting for the first time.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Nearly double the volume on Kuniev's side
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Kuniev absorbs very little for how much he produces
Defesa de Strikes (%)
The only striking number that smiles at Fortune
Takedowns por 15 Min
Fortune's entire game runs through this line
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Kuniev has attempted 4 takedowns in the UFC and landed none; his game doesn't run through them
Defesa de Takedown (%)
Kuniev's 93% was built against Blaydes and Almeida; Fortune's 100% comes from a single fight
Kuniev leads in 3 categories · Fortune leads in 4
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Kuniev finishes 62% of his wins, but the recent data tells a different story: against top-10 competition, he's won on the scorecards, managing fights with precision and takedown defense. Fortune has 10 knockouts in 18 wins (the tally includes 2 submissions, 5 decisions and 1 disqualification win over Bilostenniy in 2023, grouped here under decision), nearly all of it built in Bellator and on the regional circuit. Both men carry legitimate heavyweight power, but the pattern is clear: when the opponent is durable and ranked, both go to the cards. That's how it went for Kuniev against Blaydes and Almeida, and for Fortune against Tybura.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The loss profiles tell the quiet story of this fight. Kuniev has never been knocked out or submitted: all three losses came by decision, two of them back in 2014 and 2015 early in his career, the third the debated split to Blaydes. Historically, the only way to beat Kuniev is on the scorecards. Fortune's sample is small but revealing: flattened by Tim Johnson in 2020 for his only knockout loss, caught in a two-minute heel hook by Bilostenniy in 2024, and a split to Vassell. Two of his three losses are quick finishes on bad nights. The practical read: finish bets on either side have almost no historical footing against Kuniev, and the scorecard route is the most likely destination of this fight.
Skills Profile
Kuniev
vs
Fortune
Striking em Distância
+3 Kuniev
A sanda world champion landing 3.94 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy; his jab left Blaydes swollen. Fortune produces 2.00 per minute.
Striking em Curta Distância
+1 Kuniev
Kuniev won the dirty-boxing exchanges in the clinch against Almeida, but close range is where Fortune's hands live: 10 career knockouts.
Poder de Nocaute
Even
Fortune has more knockouts (10 to 6), but against a lower level. Both carry real heavyweight power; neither man has margin to get lazy.
Defesa de Striking
+1 Kuniev
Kuniev absorbs just 2.33 strikes per minute and has never been dropped for good; Fortune's defensive percentage is better (57%), but he eats more overall.
Grappling e Clinch
+2 Fortune
Fortune's wrestling credentials are from another planet and he landed 3 takedowns in his debut. The caveat: Kuniev just won this exact battle against Blaydes and Almeida.
Cardio (3 rounds)
+1 Kuniev
Fortune visibly rationed energy in round 2 against Tybura at 35. Kuniev also slows in final rounds, but he's now sustained three hard rounds twice in a row against elite opposition.
There's only one matchup here: Fortune has to turn this into a wrestling match, and Kuniev just proved against the division's two best grapplers that doing so is harder against him than against anyone else in the top 10. On the feet, the technical and volume gap is wide and favors Kuniev in every extended scenario.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Rizvan Kuniev wins because his takedown defense was just tested by the two best grapplers in the division and passed (13 straight Blaydes takedowns stuffed in his debut, Almeida walled off on the fence for three rounds in his second fight), because the striking gap is the widest in the fight (3.94 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy with a sanda world champion's base, against Fortune's 2.00), and because the recent level of competition isn't comparable (Kuniev is coming off the No. 5 and No. 6 ranked heavyweights, Fortune built his streak on the regional circuit before beating No. 10 Tybura on two weeks' notice).
The thesis is: Rizvan Kuniev wins because his takedown defense was just tested by the two best grapplers in the division and passed (13 straight Blaydes takedowns stuffed in his debut, Almeida walled off on the fence for three rounds in his second fight), because the striking gap is the widest in the fight (3.94 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy with a sanda world champion's base, against Fortune's 2.00), and because the recent level of competition isn't comparable (Kuniev is coming off the No. 5 and No. 6 ranked heavyweights, Fortune built his streak on the regional circuit before beating No. 10 Tybura on two weeks' notice).
The path is Kuniev defending the clinch entries, winning the fence sequences the way he did against Almeida, and stacking volume and accuracy on the feet round after round until the cards are closed. It breaks down if Fortune lands takedown and control early and runs the round-1 Tybura script on Kuniev, stealing rounds with fence pressure.
Conviction
Conviction 7 because the thesis crosses four independent dimensions: stats (93% takedown defense, 3.94 against 2.00 in volume), level of competition (Blaydes and Almeida against Tybura and the regional circuit), style (Fortune's only path is the exact weapon Kuniev neutralized twice in a row, against better executors), and physical profile (younger, taller, never knocked out or submitted). It's not an 8 for three honest reasons: Fortune's wrestling pedigree is real elite-level, Kuniev has shown he gives away rounds when he over-manages, and a heavyweight fight with this much power on both sides doesn't support high conviction over three rounds.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Fortune lands a takedown and heavy control in round 1, the Blaydes-in-Baku script and his own Tybura script are in motion, and the thesis starts to crack.
- 02
If Kuniev coasts and hands the judges close rounds, the way he did in stretches against Almeida, he reopens the door to the kind of split that already burned him once in the UFC.
- 03
If Fortune's hands land clean on Kuniev's 48% striking defense, heavyweight collects its tax: the American has 10 career knockouts and nobody walks through everything in this division.
- 04
If full-camp Fortune is visibly better than debut Fortune (he said himself that two weeks' notice didn't show his best version), his wrestling might sustain three rounds instead of one.
Underdog Path
Fortune opens the fight the way he opened against Tybura: immediate pressure, fence clinch, a takedown inside the first minute and control-heavy ground-and-pound. He repeats the recipe in round 2 before Kuniev's jab settles in, reaches round 3 with two rounds banked and manages the final stretch, accepting a lost last round without risk. It's the script Blaydes ran through the first two rounds against Kuniev, executed by a world-credentialed wrestler who has a full camp this time.
Required Conditions
- Land a takedown in round 1, before Kuniev's jab settles and the fight's rhythm gets defined on the feet
- Turn every clinch into fence control time without burning energy the way he did in round 2 against Tybura
- Bank ground control minutes in at least two of the three rounds
- Never depend on striking for any long stretch: at 2.00 strikes per minute, every standing minute is a round slipping away
— Precedent: Blaydes vs Kuniev (UFC Baku, June 2025): two early takedowns and fence control were enough to take a razor-thin split, even with Kuniev hurting Blaydes down the stretch. It's the only blueprint that has ever worked against Kuniev in the UFC.
Verdict
Winner
Rizvan Kuniev
Method
Unanimous Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Rizvan Kuniev
Kuniev because Fortune's only weapon was just neutralized twice in a row against better grapplers, and on the feet the volume gap is nearly double. The line already prices in most of it, so this is a moderate-stake play, not a parlay anchor. Breaks if Fortune's takedown lands early and the fence control repeats round after round.
- 02
Método
Kuniev by decision
This is where the real value lives: at the UFC level, Kuniev's wins over ranked opponents came on the cards, and Fortune has been knocked out exactly once in his career. The method market tends to pay better than the moneyline precisely because the public buys the favorite's knockout. The specific line wasn't published when this analysis was generated; if it pays above the moneyline, it's the bet most coherent with the thesis. Breaks if Kuniev lands the big shot early, which Fortune's career says is rare.
- 03
Como termina (qualquer lutador)
Fight goes to decision
The statistical hedge of the fight: Kuniev has never been finished in 17 fights, Fortune has been put away just once in his career, and both of Kuniev's UFC fights went to the cards, as did Fortune's debut. Breaks in the classic heavyweight chaos scenario, one clean shot from either side, which is exactly the risk this line pays you to accept.
Most Likely Outcome
Kuniev by decision
It packages all three pillars of the thesis into one ticket: takedown defense tested against the elite, superior volume on the feet, and an opponent who almost never gets finished. Conviction 7 supports a moderate stake; if the method line isn't paying a premium over the moneyline, drop down to the straight Kuniev moneyline.
Stats That Matter
13
straight Blaydes takedowns Kuniev stuffed in his debut
Fortune has never faced takedown defense anywhere near this
2.00
significant strikes per minute for Fortune in the UFC
If the takedown doesn't land, that's the plan B at 36
ZERO
times Kuniev has been knocked out or submitted in his career
All three of his losses came by decision, two before 2016
The Trap
Kuniev by knockout
The heavy favorite line and six career knockouts push the public toward Kuniev getting a finish. But at the UFC level his wins have come on the cards, Fortune has been knocked out exactly once in his entire career (Tim Johnson, 2020), and Fortune's plan is to smother, not to trade. The most likely script is a rerun of the Almeida fight: takedown defense, precision, control, decision. Anyone paying the knockout premium is buying the wrong fight.
The heavy favorite line and six career knockouts push the public toward Kuniev getting a finish. But at the UFC level his wins have come on the cards, Fortune has been knocked out exactly once in his entire career (Tim Johnson, 2020), and Fortune's plan is to smother, not to trade. The most likely script is a rerun of the Almeida fight: takedown defense, precision, control, decision. Anyone paying the knockout premium is buying the wrong fight.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune | UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov | July 25, 2026 | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
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