July 18, 2026 · Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA
Hooper
16-5-1
UnrankedEnumclaw, USA | 26 years old
Ramirez
8-3-0
UnrankedOrem, Utah, USA | 33 years old
The Mat or the Mayhem
Hooper is a black belt who has never been submitted, but he arrives on the back of two straight first-round TKO losses. Ramirez hits hard and needs one shot, only he's never felt the squeeze of a grappler this good.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
Whoever Imposes His Own Game First
Chase Hooper is one of the best BJJ black belts in the lightweight division. Eight of his 16 wins came by submission, and in his entire career he has never been submitted, not once. When the fight hits the mat, he takes over: he took Jordan Leavitt's back, submitted veteran Clay Guida in round one, and tied up the rugged Borshchev. The mat isn't the problem. Getting there is. In his last two fights, Hooper was dismantled on the feet before he could lay a hand on his man: Alexander Hernandez flattened him in round one last August, and Lance Gibson Jr. repeated the dose with knees in round one this March. Two straight TKOs, both in the first round, both in the stand-up. His striking defense has become the glaring hole in the thesis. Across from him stands a man who fits that hole perfectly, and at the same time plays right into Hooper's biggest edge. Mitch Ramirez is pressure and heavy hands, five of his eight wins by knockout, nicknamed 'The Fight Stalker.' He hits hard and hunts the exchange. But his UFC record is 0-2, both by TKO, and he has never won inside the Octagon. Worse for him: his takedown defense sits at 25% and his ground game has never been tested against a real grappler, because he's always fought strikers. The math is simple and brutal. If Hooper closes the distance and drags this to the mat, he takes over and likely finishes. If Ramirez keeps it standing and lands the shot on Hooper's freshly-rattled chin, the crowd goes quiet. The whole fight lives in those opening minutes: whoever imposes his own game first.
Chase Hooper is one of the best BJJ black belts in the lightweight division. Eight of his 16 wins came by submission, and in his entire career he has never been submitted, not once. When the fight hits the mat, he takes over: he took Jordan Leavitt's back, submitted veteran Clay Guida in round one, and tied up the rugged Borshchev. The mat isn't the problem. Getting there is. In his last two fights, Hooper was dismantled on the feet before he could lay a hand on his man: Alexander Hernandez flattened him in round one last August, and Lance Gibson Jr. repeated the dose with knees in round one this March. Two straight TKOs, both in the first round, both in the stand-up. His striking defense has become the glaring hole in the thesis. Across from him stands a man who fits that hole perfectly, and at the same time plays right into Hooper's biggest edge. Mitch Ramirez is pressure and heavy hands, five of his eight wins by knockout, nicknamed 'The Fight Stalker.' He hits hard and hunts the exchange. But his UFC record is 0-2, both by TKO, and he has never won inside the Octagon. Worse for him: his takedown defense sits at 25% and his ground game has never been tested against a real grappler, because he's always fought strikers. The math is simple and brutal. If Hooper closes the distance and drags this to the mat, he takes over and likely finishes. If Ramirez keeps it standing and lands the shot on Hooper's freshly-rattled chin, the crowd goes quiet. The whole fight lives in those opening minutes: whoever imposes his own game first.
Tale of the Tape
Hooper is 7 years younger and far fresher in career mileage
Hooper is 2 inches taller
Hooper carries a 3-inch reach edge, the longer man
The Octagon experience chasm
Current Form
Chase Hooper
UFC Seattle. His third career loss to strikes on the feet, and the second in a row. Gibson Jr. landed knees and stopped Hooper at 2:56 of round 1, before the fight got anywhere near the mat. A glaring alarm on his stand-up defense.
TKO R1UFC 319. The more explosive Hernandez caught Hooper with a cross and ground-and-pound at 4:58 of round 1. The first stand-up knockout of this stretch and the start of the chin questions.
TKO R1Outpointed the legend and UFC all-time fights leader over three rounds. Proof he can win on pace and on the cards, not just by finish. Cardio and fight IQ on display.
Unanimous DecisionSubmitted rugged veteran Clay Guida in round 1. Pure Hooper: closed the distance, got it to the mat and locked up the finish against a respected name in the division.
Sub R1Tied up the dangerous Slava Borshchev and finished in round 2. His third straight submission back at lightweight, in the middle of his hot run.
Sub R2This is where the thesis gets fragile. Hooper comes in off two straight losses, both by first-round TKO, something that had never happened in his career. Hernandez flattened him in August, Gibson Jr. repeated it with knees in March, both on the feet, both before the fight could reach the mat. What holds the read on him is the body of work: before this skid, he strung together submissions over Leavitt, Borshchev and Guida and a decision over the legend Jim Miller. At 26, a black belt, he's still the higher-level fighter here. But the chin is now an open question.
Mitch Ramirez
UFC Fight Night. Took a beating over the fight and was stopped by strikes at 4:08 of round 2. His second straight UFC loss, again with no answer for the Octagon pace.
TKO R2UFC debut. Dominated from start to finish, dropped by leg kicks with the stoppage coming early in round 3, at 0:15. The level gap was laid bare.
TKO R3LFA 173. Knocked out the undefeated Aireon Tavarres in round 1. His most recent win to date, and it came on the regional scene, well below UFC level.
TKO R1Contender Series. Lost to the now-touted Carlos Prates by TKO in round 2, his first pro loss and the one that cost him the contract at the time.
TKO R2XMMA 6. Stopped Jeremie Holloway in round 3. Another 'Fight Stalker' knockout on the regional circuit, part of the unbeaten run that earned his Contender Series shot.
TKO R3Ramirez arrives in a rough, doubt-filled stretch. He hasn't won since December 2023, a regional knockout over Tavarres, and in the UFC he's 0-2: TKO'd by Thiago Moises on debut and by Mike Davis in July 2025, both after taking a beating over rounds. Add the inactivity, one fight in each of the last two years, and you've got a 33-year-old who desperately needs a result. What keeps him dangerous is the power: 'The Fight Stalker' presses forward and carries heavy hands, five of his eight wins by knockout. He just needs one shot. But he still hasn't proven he can handle the pace or the level of the Octagon.
Level of Competition
The class gap is the heart of this fight, and it leans hard toward Hooper. The American built his record beating real UFC names: he submitted Jordan Leavitt and Clay Guida, tied up Borshchev, and outpointed the legend Jim Miller. His losses came to strikers at his own level. Ramirez, by contrast, has never won in the UFC: he's 0-2, knocked out by Thiago Moises and Mike Davis, and his last win came on the regional scene in 2023. They share no common opponents, and that's exactly the point: Ramirez hasn't proven anything at this level yet, while Hooper has, against better men than Ramirez.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Hooper throws more volume, but neither man is a sniper
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Both hover in the same range; on paper it's a stand-up wash
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Both are hittable. In a firefight, someone gets cracked
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Both defend little on the feet, but Hooper is the one coming off two recent knockouts
Takedowns por 15 Min
Hooper is the grappler; this is the fight he wants to make
Defesa de Takedown (%)
Ramirez's 25% is the alarm bell, though on a small sample
Submissões por 15 Min
Hooper hunts submissions; Ramirez has never logged one in the UFC
Hooper leads in 7 categories · Ramirez leads in 0
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The paths to victory tell the story. Hooper is a pure grappler: 8 of his 16 wins by submission, plus 4 knockouts (most of them ground-and-pound from top position) and 4 decisions. He builds off the mat. Ramirez is the opposite, a stand-up finisher: 5 knockouts, 2 submissions and just 1 decision in 8 wins, almost all early. It matters a lot for the method: Hooper wants the mat and the squeeze, Ramirez wants the stand-up impact. Whoever imposes his own turf decides how this ends.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The loss profiles are telling and opposite. Hooper has never been submitted, not once: his 5 defeats came by knockout (3, including the two recent stand-up round-one stoppages) or decision (2, in his early UFC years). His vulnerability is clear and current: the firefight, the chin. Ramirez has a small sample, just 3 losses, but they all say the same thing: all 3 by TKO, always by strikes. He gets hurt when the opponent keeps the pace and punishes him on the feet. Neither man has been submitted, but for different reasons: Hooper because he owns the mat, Ramirez because he's never faced a grappler who knew what to do there. Against Hooper, that sample becomes a warning: it's the first time Ramirez faces an elite submission game.
Skills Profile
Hooper
vs
Ramirez
Grappling e Clinch
+4 Hooper
A chasm. Hooper is a BJJ black belt with 8 submissions who has never been submitted. Ramirez has 25% takedown defense and a ground game never tested against a grappler. If the fight hits the mat, it's Hooper's.
Poder de Nocaute
+3 Ramirez
Ramirez has the heavier hands, 5 knockouts in 8 wins, and Hooper was just knocked out on the feet twice in a row in round one. The power is real and the window exists.
Striking em Distância
+1 Hooper
Hooper is taller, longer (3-inch reach edge) and throws more volume (4.50 to 3.51 per minute). At range he has the edge, as long as he respects Ramirez's power.
Defesa de Striking
+1 Ramirez
Both are leaky on the feet (Hooper defends 40%, Ramirez 37%), but it's Hooper coming off two recent knockouts. In a firefight, Ramirez is likelier to land the fight-ending shot first.
Cardio
+2 Hooper
Hooper has gone three rounds with Jim Miller and holds his pace. Ramirez wilted in both UFC losses, taking a beating over rounds, and comes off long inactivity.
Experiência
+4 Hooper
Hooper beat Miller, Guida, Leavitt and Borshchev, real UFC names. Ramirez is 0-2 in the Octagon and has never won at this level. The mileage gap is enormous.
Hooper is the more complete, higher-level fighter, with a clear path: close the distance, get it to the mat, and finish, where he's never lost. Ramirez has one dangerous weapon, one-shot power, aimed squarely at the hole Hooper just showed twice. The question isn't who's better overall, it's Hooper. The question is whether he reaches the mat before Ramirez lands on his chin.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Chase Hooper wins because he's the far higher-level fighter and carries the clearest path to victory. He's a BJJ black belt with eight submissions who has never been submitted, he's the bigger, younger man, and he's already beaten real UFC names (Jim Miller, Clay Guida, Borshchev, Leavitt) while Ramirez is 0-2 in the Octagon without a single win at this level, with 25% takedown defense and a ground game never tested against a grappler.
The thesis is: Chase Hooper wins because he's the far higher-level fighter and carries the clearest path to victory. He's a BJJ black belt with eight submissions who has never been submitted, he's the bigger, younger man, and he's already beaten real UFC names (Jim Miller, Clay Guida, Borshchev, Leavitt) while Ramirez is 0-2 in the Octagon without a single win at this level, with 25% takedown defense and a ground game never tested against a grappler.
The path is Hooper closing the distance, getting it to the mat, and grinding to the finish, the one place he's never lost. It breaks down for one reason, and it's a fresh one: Hooper is coming off two straight first-round TKO losses, both on the feet, to Hernandez and Gibson Jr. And Ramirez hits exactly where it hurts, with the heavy hands and pressure that have already produced five knockouts. If the underdog keeps it standing and lands the shot before the mat appears, the thesis falls.
Conviction
Conviction 6, no higher, because the thesis is multi-dimensional and solid (level of competition, physical edge, elite grappling, and Ramirez's fragile takedown defense), but there's a fresh, documented breaker: Hooper was knocked out in round one twice in a row, both on the feet, and Ramirez has exactly the profile, pressure and heavy hands, to exploit it. This isn't a market read. The books have Hooper (about 70%), and I sit under, at 63%, precisely because the chin is an open question. What holds the lean and doesn't invert it is the level gap (Hooper beat Miller, Guida, Borshchev; Ramirez is 0-2 in the UFC) and a path to victory, the mat, that Ramirez has never proven he can defend. The edge comes from research: the underdog's ground game is virgin territory against a black belt, not from the line.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Hooper lands the takedown in round 1, Ramirez has no ground game to answer and the fight becomes domination toward the squeeze.
- 02
If Ramirez's 25% takedown defense holds true, he spends the whole fight being put down and burning energy to stand back up.
- 03
If the long layoff and cardio catch up to Ramirez, he becomes a stationary target from round 2 against a man who's gone three rounds.
- 04
If Ramirez does NOT land early on the feet, he loses the one real window he has and the fight slides onto Hooper's turf.
Underdog Path
Ramirez doesn't need an elaborate plan, he needs to keep it standing and land one shot in the pocket. Hooper was just finished in round one twice on the feet by pressure strikers. Ramirez is a pressure striker with real power. If he stuffs the early shots, or catches Hooper diving in head-first, and cracks him before the fight hits the mat, it's over, exactly the script that just played out against Hernandez and Gibson Jr.
Required Conditions
- Stuff or avoid the early takedown attempts and keep the fight on the feet
- Pressure Hooper to the fence and force stand-up exchanges in his wheelhouse
- Land clean on Hooper's suspect chin in the first two rounds
- Don't get dragged to the mat, where he has no answer for an elite black belt
— Precedent: Hernandez (August 2025) and Gibson Jr. (March 2026) both finished Hooper by first-round TKO on the feet, back-to-back. Two fresh, documented blueprints. Ramirez carries the one-shot power to run the same play.
Verdict
Winner
Chase Hooper
Method
Submission
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Chase Hooper
Hooper because he's the far higher-level fighter with the clearest path, the mat, against a man who's never defended elite grappling. Moderate stake, not fat, because the price is already short and his chin is an open question after two straight knockouts.
- 02
Method (favorite)
Hooper by submission
Hooper finishes more than he decisions and Ramirez's ground game has never been tested. If the takedown comes, the squeeze usually follows. Estimated odds; prelim props aren't always posted.
- 03
Method (underdog)
Ramirez by KO/TKO
The cleanest path to the upset and it has to be acknowledged: Hooper was knocked out in round one twice in a row and Ramirez has the power to repeat it. A conscious longshot, not the main read.
Most Likely Outcome
Hooper by submission, moderate stake
In a conviction-6 fight, the soundest read is the method that follows the path: if Hooper imposes the mat, Ramirez has no answer and the finish appears. Moderate stake because he has to walk through the stand-up to get there, and that's exactly where the risk lives.
Stats That Matter
8
of Hooper's 16 wins came by submission. He has never been submitted in his career
A BJJ black belt against a man with 25% takedown defense
0-2
is Ramirez's UFC record, both losses by TKO
He's never won inside the Octagon and never faced a grappler of this caliber
2
straight first-round TKO losses for Hooper, both on the feet
His chin and stand-up defense are the hole in the thesis, and Ramirez hits hard
The Trap
Hooper by easy submission
Hooper's favoritism and his black-belt reputation will pull the public to him by submission at a short price, treating Ramirez as just another regional guy. The trap is ignoring the stand-up phase. Hooper was just knocked out in round one twice in a row, both on the feet, and Ramirez is no punching bag: he's pressure, heavy hands and five knockouts. The takedown is Hooper's path, but he has to walk through the striking to get there. Loading up on the favorite ignores that one shot from 'The Fight Stalker' flips everything.
Hooper's favoritism and his black-belt reputation will pull the public to him by submission at a short price, treating Ramirez as just another regional guy. The trap is ignoring the stand-up phase. Hooper was just knocked out in round one twice in a row, both on the feet, and Ramirez is no punching bag: he's pressure, heavy hands and five knockouts. The takedown is Hooper's path, but he has to walk through the striking to get there. Loading up on the favorite ignores that one shot from 'The Fight Stalker' flips everything.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Chase "The Dream" Hooper vs Mitch "The Fight Stalker" Ramirez | UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs Usman | July 18, 2026 | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA
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