July 25, 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Erceg
14-4-0
#10 FlyweightPerth, Australia | 30 years old
Temirov
19-3-0
UnrankedKashkadarya, Uzbekistan | 29 years old
The Measuring Stick Meets the Comeback
Temirov returns from 511 days away riding an 11-fight win streak and first-round power. Erceg holds a 5-inch reach edge and a stated plan for fight night: deep waters.
O FATOR-X DA LUTA
The Danger Lasts Five Minutes
Exactly one year ago, Ramazan Temirov was booked on this same Abu Dhabi card, against Asu Almabayev, when a positive test for trimetazidine pulled him from the event and out of the sport. His version: a leg infection during a training camp in Thailand, a medication prescribed by his nutritionist, and the administrative mistake of never checking the banned list. The ban was retroactive, 12 months, with eligibility on July 5, 2026. Twenty days after clearing, he's back in the cage against the most dangerous opponent of his career. The Uzbek's profile is clear: 11 knockouts in 19 wins, 10 of them in round 1, a compact 5'4" frame, and explosive pressure. The problem is that Steve Erceg is the worst possible measuring stick for this test: five extra inches of reach, fight IQ forged in a title fight with Pantoja and five rounds with Moreno, and a gameplan he announced himself during fight week: take Temirov into deep waters and try to drown him. No UFC opponent Temirov has faced brought that package. The math of this fight fits in one sentence: Temirov has never finished anyone after the second round, and Erceg loses early or doesn't lose at all. Of the Australian's four defeats, three were decisions against elite opposition and one was the 2024 flash knockout to Kara-France, exactly the kind of explosive hitter Temirov is. The first five minutes decide who spends the night comfortable.
Exactly one year ago, Ramazan Temirov was booked on this same Abu Dhabi card, against Asu Almabayev, when a positive test for trimetazidine pulled him from the event and out of the sport. His version: a leg infection during a training camp in Thailand, a medication prescribed by his nutritionist, and the administrative mistake of never checking the banned list. The ban was retroactive, 12 months, with eligibility on July 5, 2026. Twenty days after clearing, he's back in the cage against the most dangerous opponent of his career. The Uzbek's profile is clear: 11 knockouts in 19 wins, 10 of them in round 1, a compact 5'4" frame, and explosive pressure. The problem is that Steve Erceg is the worst possible measuring stick for this test: five extra inches of reach, fight IQ forged in a title fight with Pantoja and five rounds with Moreno, and a gameplan he announced himself during fight week: take Temirov into deep waters and try to drown him. No UFC opponent Temirov has faced brought that package. The math of this fight fits in one sentence: Temirov has never finished anyone after the second round, and Erceg loses early or doesn't lose at all. Of the Australian's four defeats, three were decisions against elite opposition and one was the 2024 flash knockout to Kara-France, exactly the kind of explosive hitter Temirov is. The first five minutes decide who spends the night comfortable.
Truth A
The power is real and the blueprint exists: 10 of Temirov's 11 knockouts came in round 1, and the last time Erceg faced a short, explosive power puncher (Kara-France, UFC 305) he never heard the bell for round 2.
Truth B
Everything after round 1 belongs to Erceg: the 5-inch reach edge, the calibre of his opposition, cardio tested over five-round fights, and an opponent coming off 511 days on ice who has never finished anyone after the second round.
Tale of the Tape
Erceg turns 31 two days after the fight
A 4-inch height gap, enormous at flyweight
5 extra inches for the Australian, the biggest physical gap in the fight
The central contrast of the matchup
Current Form
Steve Erceg
In Perth, he controlled the longtime veteran with takedown defense and volume behind the jab. A mature win from a fighter who relearned how to win.
Unanimous DecisionFirst win after the three-fight skid. Shut down the explosive athlete and stopped the bleeding with a comfortable decision.
Unanimous DecisionFive rounds in Mexico City against the former champion, then ranked No. 2. Lost clearly on the cards (49-46 across the board) but stayed upright and competitive the whole way.
Unanimous DecisionThe night hanging over this matchup: an overhand left and follow-up shots, out inside one round at home at UFC 305.
TKO R1A title shot in just his fifth UFC fight. Lost the decision but went five hard rounds with the champion and came out bigger than he went in.
Unanimous DecisionTwo straight wins after a three-fight skid that reads far better in context: Pantoja for the belt, Moreno over five rounds in Mexico City, and the flash knockout against Kara-France. Erceg rebuilt with mature decisions over Osbourne and Elliott, got back in the win column at home in May, and stays busy with just 84 days between fights. His last two years amount to a crash course against the flyweight elite.
Ramazan Temirov
Snapped the four-fight streak of the then-No. 12 contender on three 29-28 cards. Won it with pressure and entry volume against a long, mobile striker.
Unanimous DecisionUFC debut: three knockdowns and a stoppage at 2:50 of the first. A business card written in first-round power.
TKO R1One-round knockout in RIZIN, part of the run of fast finishes in Japan that got the UFC's attention.
KO R1Another opponent gone inside the first round on the Japanese circuit.
KO R1Quick knockout on the regional circuit, in a stretch where nearly everything he touched fell inside a round.
KO R1Eleven straight wins since 2019 and a perfect UFC start: he ran through Vergara in under a round with three knockdowns, then snapped ranked Charles Johnson's streak on the cards. Then came the positive test for trimetazidine, a 12-month suspension, and 511 days on ice. He returns with the hunger of a man who lost a year of his career, but nobody knows which version steps off the plane after that long away, and the step up he's taking is the biggest of his life.
Level of Competition
Zero common opponents, and that gap is the whole story. Erceg's last six came against Pantoja for the belt, Kara-France, Moreno, and battle-tested veterans; he lost to the three at the top but banked elite mileage doing it. Temirov built his 19 wins across the Central Asian circuit, China's WLF, and RIZIN, and in the UFC he beat an unranked action fighter and the then-No. 12 contender. The step up he's taking now is the biggest of his career, and he's taking it after 511 days out of the cage.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Similar volume, built against very different levels of opposition. Temirov's sample: just two UFC fights, roughly 18 minutes
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Erceg is the cleaner, more accurate striker; Temirov wastes more on his entries
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Both men are hittable. Erceg absorbs more volume, and that feeds the upset scenario
Takedowns por 15 Min
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Tiny sample for Temirov: 1 takedown landed on 2 attempts in the UFC
Defesa de Takedown (%)
Temirov's 100% comes from two fights against non-wrestlers; Erceg's 67% was tested by Pantoja and Moreno
Erceg leads in 3 categories · Temirov leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The numbers sketch opposite styles. Temirov is a short-window knockout artist: 58% of his wins by KO/TKO, 10 of them in round 1, and a single career submission. Erceg is the inverse: just 2 knockouts in 14 wins, but 6 submissions and 6 decisions, the profile of a fighter who wins on accumulation, reads, and timing. For the method here, the math is simple: the Uzbek needs a moment, the Australian needs 15 minutes.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The loss profiles tell the story the records hide. Erceg has never been submitted and has been stopped by strikes exactly once, by Kara-France in 2024; his other three losses were decisions, two of them to Pantoja and Moreno, the absolute elite. Temirov has never been knocked out in 22 fights: his three losses (an armbar in 2019 and two decisions on the Chinese circuit) are old news, all before the 11-fight streak. Small samples on both sides, but the practical read is singular: the likeliest way to beat Temirov is on the scorecards, and the likeliest way to beat Erceg is the early knockout.
Skills Profile
Erceg
vs
Temirov
Striking em Distância
+3 Erceg
Five inches of reach, a former title challenger's jab, and range-reading sharpened against Pantoja and Moreno.
Striking em Curta Distância
+2 Temirov
In the pocket, Temirov's compact frame and heavy hands run the show. That's where he broke Vergara with three knockdowns.
Poder de Nocaute
+3 Temirov
11 KOs in 19 wins against Erceg's 2 in 14. A real gap in damage per punch landed.
Defesa de Striking
Even
Temirov has never been knocked out, but against modest opposition; Erceg absorbs 4.07 per minute and has been flattened once. Neither man is hard to hit.
Grappling e Clinch
+2 Erceg
Six career submissions, opportunistic takedowns, and defense tested against elite grapplers. Temirov's ground game barely shows up in his fights.
Cardio (3 rounds)
+2 Erceg
Erceg has gone ten hard rounds with champions across two main events. Temirov returns from 511 days away and has built his career on short nights.
Temirov wins any isolated exchange of power; Erceg wins almost everything else. The question that decides this fight is geographic: does it happen at the end of the Australian's jab, or inside the Uzbek's pocket.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Steve Erceg wins because he holds five inches of reach and four inches of height over a 5'4" opponent who has to cross the distance on courage alone, because the calibre gap is a chasm, Erceg's last six fights came against Pantoja, Kara-France, Moreno and hardened veterans while Temirov's best win is then-No. 12 Charles Johnson on three 29-28 cards, and because the Uzbek returns from 511 days away on an anti-doping suspension while Erceg fought 84 days ago and told everyone during fight week that he plans to drag Temirov into deep waters.
The thesis is: Steve Erceg wins because he holds five inches of reach and four inches of height over a 5'4" opponent who has to cross the distance on courage alone, because the calibre gap is a chasm, Erceg's last six fights came against Pantoja, Kara-France, Moreno and hardened veterans while Temirov's best win is then-No. 12 Charles Johnson on three 29-28 cards, and because the Uzbek returns from 511 days away on an anti-doping suspension while Erceg fought 84 days ago and told everyone during fight week that he plans to drag Temirov into deep waters.
The path is surviving the first-round blitz with the jab, lateral movement and range, then banking rounds 2 and 3 as the comeback rhythm taxes Temirov's entries. It breaks down if the Uzbek's heavy hands find Erceg's chin early, the way Kara-France's did in 2024.
Conviction
Conviction 6, not 7, despite five independent dimensions pointing to Erceg: the physical frame (5-inch reach edge), the calibre gap (Pantoja, Moreno and Kara-France against Vergara and Johnson), momentum (84 days versus 511 on ice), style (10 of Temirov's 11 KOs in round 1 against a specialist in stretching fights), and the qualitative fight-week signal, with Erceg announcing the deep-waters plan himself. What holds the score down is the size of the underdog's weapon: Erceg's chin has already failed against this exact archetype, and the market prices the fight close to even. When the underdog path carries a real 40% and hinges on one thing that has already happened before, honesty says stay at 6.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Temirov lands clean power in the first two rounds, the thesis dies on the spot: that's exactly how Kara-France put Erceg away at UFC 305, and the Australian's chin is the one variable no reach advantage protects.
- 02
If the rust never shows and Temirov sustains his pressure pace for three rounds the way he did against Johnson, he can steal this on entry volume even without the knockout.
- 03
If Erceg chooses to trade in the pocket instead of working behind the jab and his feet, he cancels his own edge: he absorbs 4.07 strikes per minute and has a habit of standing in front of opponents longer than he should.
Underdog Path
Temirov comes out aggressive behind feints, eats the jab to close distance, pins Erceg against the fence and unloads heavy hands in the exchanges. The precedent exists: at UFC 305, Kara-France, another short, explosive hitter, found Erceg's chin in round 1. If the knockout doesn't come early, the Uzbek needs to steal the first two rounds on pressure volume before the comeback pace presents its bill.
Required Conditions
- Close the distance without getting stuck on the end of the jab of a man with a 5-inch reach advantage
- Land power on the Australian's chin inside the first two rounds, the window where the comeback body is still fresh
- Turn the fight into a dirty firefight along the fence and in the pocket, where his compact frame becomes the advantage
- Keep the fight from reaching a high-pace third round after 511 days on the shelf
— Precedent: Kara-France vs Erceg (UFC 305, August 2024): a shorter, explosive pressure hitter flattened Erceg in the first round with an overhand left and follow-ups. It's the exact map Temirov needs to follow.
Verdict
Winner
Steve Erceg
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Steve Erceg
Erceg because the 5-inch reach edge, the calibre of his opposition, and 511 days of rust on the other side all point the same way. The line opened Temirov and flipped to Erceg, so the market already corrected part of the mistake, but the price still pays fairly for the more complete fighter. Breaks if the Uzbek's heavy hands find the chin Kara-France found.
- 02
Método
Erceg by decision
Four of Erceg's five UFC wins came by decision, and Temirov has never been knocked out in 22 fights. If the Australian survives the first ten minutes, scorecards are the likeliest destination. Breaks if a late submission materializes against a drained opponent, which wouldn't be absurd given Erceg's 6 career subs.
Most Likely Outcome
Steve Erceg, moderate stake
Conviction 6: Erceg's path is clear and multi-dimensional, but the underdog carries a real 40% concentrated in one weapon that has already worked against this chin. Moderate play on the favorite, don't size it up.
Stats That Matter
5"
reach advantage for Erceg (68 inches to 63)
Temirov has never faced a frame like this; every entry runs through the Australian's jab and counters
511
days between Temirov's last fight and fight night in Abu Dhabi
A 12-month anti-doping suspension, and he returns straight into a former title challenger
10
of Temirov's 11 career knockouts came in the first round
He has never finished anyone after round 2; if this fight escapes the first, it changes owners
The Trap
Temirov by first-round knockout
The public sees 11 knockouts, 10 of them in round 1, remembers Erceg getting flattened by Kara-France, and sprints to the early KO prop. But Temirov is coming off 511 days away, has never faced anyone with a 5-inch reach advantage, and the one time he met a long, mobile technical striker in the UFC (Charles Johnson) the fight went to three 29-28 cards. Paying a premium for a fast knockout from a man who hasn't fought in 17 months is betting on the memory, not the scenario.
The public sees 11 knockouts, 10 of them in round 1, remembers Erceg getting flattened by Kara-France, and sprints to the early KO prop. But Temirov is coming off 511 days away, has never faced anyone with a 5-inch reach advantage, and the one time he met a long, mobile technical striker in the UFC (Charles Johnson) the fight went to three 29-28 cards. Paying a premium for a fast knockout from a man who hasn't fought in 17 months is betting on the memory, not the scenario.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Steve "Astroboy" Erceg vs Ramazan "Temurlan" Temirov | UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov | July 25, 2026 | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
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