July 18, 2026 · Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA
Cannonier
18-9-0
#11 MiddleweightPhoenix, Arizona, USA | 42 years old
Duncan
14-2-0
#13 MiddleweightGloucester, England | 30 years old
One-Shot Power Against the Clock
Cannonier is 42 with the heaviest hands on the co-main and a chin that rarely cracks. Duncan is 30, three inches taller, two inches longer, riding a four-fight streak that runs through the top 15.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
The Veteran's Timing Against the Young Man's Reach
There's one name that shows up on both sides of this fight, and it says almost everything. Gregory Rodrigues beat Christian Leroy Duncan on the cards in July 2024. Seven months later, Jared Cannonier stepped in against that same Rodrigues and stopped him with ground-and-pound in the fourth round. Cannonier finished the man Duncan couldn't solve. That's the veteran's case in a single sentence, and it's why Duncan's heavy favorite price deserves a hard second look. But every fight is its own thing, and the other half of the story is unforgiving. Cannonier is 42 and has won just one of his last four, including a clear decision loss to Michael Page. Duncan is 30, three inches taller, two inches longer, absorbs just 2.59 strikes per minute (to the veteran's 4.35) and lands 58% of his significant strikes. He has never been finished or knocked out in his entire career. The question isn't who hits harder — it's Cannonier. The question is whether the veteran can close the distance and land that hand before the Englishman's youth, reach, and volume build 15 minutes at his own pace.
There's one name that shows up on both sides of this fight, and it says almost everything. Gregory Rodrigues beat Christian Leroy Duncan on the cards in July 2024. Seven months later, Jared Cannonier stepped in against that same Rodrigues and stopped him with ground-and-pound in the fourth round. Cannonier finished the man Duncan couldn't solve. That's the veteran's case in a single sentence, and it's why Duncan's heavy favorite price deserves a hard second look. But every fight is its own thing, and the other half of the story is unforgiving. Cannonier is 42 and has won just one of his last four, including a clear decision loss to Michael Page. Duncan is 30, three inches taller, two inches longer, absorbs just 2.59 strikes per minute (to the veteran's 4.35) and lands 58% of his significant strikes. He has never been finished or knocked out in his entire career. The question isn't who hits harder — it's Cannonier. The question is whether the veteran can close the distance and land that hand before the Englishman's youth, reach, and volume build 15 minutes at his own pace.
Tale of the Tape
Twelve years separate them. Cannonier is the oldest man in the top 15
Duncan has a 3-inch height edge, a real advantage at middleweight
Duncan carries a 2-inch reach edge; he controls the distance
The veteran has challenged for a title and faced the elite; the Englishman has a fraction of the mileage
Current Form
Jared Cannonier
UFC 319. Lost a unanimous decision to Michael Page, who controlled range and pace with the jab and movement. Cannonier hunted the knockout all night and never landed it. A sign that the hand speed of younger men is starting to trouble him.
Unanimous DecisionMain event in Las Vegas. Traded heavy with Gregory Rodrigues, weathered the Brazilian's pressure and broke him down with ground-and-pound in the fourth round. A reminder that the veteran's hand still puts real people out.
TKO R4Main event against unbeaten Caio Borralho. Lost a unanimous decision to the Brazilian's pressure and volume, never landing the shot that changes the fight. Five rounds behind on someone else's pace.
Unanimous DecisionAgainst Nassourdine Imavov. He was competitive, but the Frenchman piled it on and stopped him in the fourth round. One of the few times Cannonier's chin gave at middleweight — and it came from accumulation, not a single shot.
TKO R4Beat Marvin Vettori by unanimous decision and set the record for most significant strikes landed in a UFC middleweight bout. Proof of volume and cardio against a durable top-five name.
Unanimous DecisionThis is where the veteran's thesis gets soft. Cannonier has won just one of his last four, with two decision losses (Page and Borralho) and a fourth-round TKO defeat to Imavov. At 42, he's the oldest man in the top 15, and the mileage is real: he's shared the cage with Adesanya, Whittaker, Gastelum, Strickland, and Vettori. What still makes him dangerous is what never left — the heavy hand. He stopped Gregory Rodrigues in the fourth round in February 2025, the very man who beat Duncan. The power and the elite-level experience hold the read on him. The age and the wear pull the other way.
Christian Leroy Duncan
The win that put him on the top-15 map. Duncan used his reach and movement to beat Roman Dolidze by unanimous decision, defended the Georgian's takedowns, and showed he can win on the cards against a real grappler.
Unanimous DecisionKnocked out Marco Tulio in the second round, finding the heavy hand after measuring the range in the first. Another young striker he solved with patience and reach.
TKO R2Flattened veteran Eryk Anders in the first round with clean strikes. A quick knockout that showed the power riding alongside his length.
TKO R1Beat Andrey Pulyaev by unanimous decision, controlling with the jab and volume at range. An unspectacular but competent win over a lower-tier opponent.
Unanimous DecisionHis last defeat. Gregory Rodrigues was the heavier, more relentless man and took the unanimous decision. The detail that matters here: it's the same Rodrigues that Cannonier knocked out months later.
Unanimous DecisionDuncan is on a clean climb. Four straight wins, crowned by a unanimous decision over Roman Dolidze in March, the first top-10 name he's beaten and proof he can bank 15 minutes against a dangerous grappler without getting taken down. In the middle of the run, two knockouts: Eryk Anders in the first, Marco Tulio in the second. The Englishman is tall, long, switches stances, and defensively economical, absorbing just 2.59 strikes per minute. The honest caveat: he has never faced power on Cannonier's level, and the one true elite name on his ledger, Rodrigues, beat him. But the momentum and the physicals are all on his side.
Level of Competition
The common opponent is the heart of this analysis, and it cuts for the veteran. Both men faced Gregory Rodrigues: Duncan lost a unanimous decision in July 2024, Cannonier stopped him with ground-and-pound in the fourth round in February 2025. Cannonier finished the man Duncan couldn't solve. Beyond that, the resume gap is stark: Cannonier built his career against the upper tier (Adesanya, Whittaker, Borralho, Imavov, Gastelum, Vettori, Strickland), while Duncan only just beat a real top-10 name in Dolidze. The caveat is age: that elite ledger was built over many years, and the Cannonier of today, at 42, isn't the one who traded evenly with Adesanya.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Virtually tied on volume. The difference is in how each man uses it
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Duncan lands cleaner, helped by his reach and shot selection
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
The most glaring number. Duncan is far more defensively economical; Cannonier gets hit too much
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Takedowns por 15 Min
Neither man lives off takedowns, but Cannonier shoots a touch more
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Defesa de Takedown (%)
Similar takedown defense. This is a stand-up fight start to finish
Submissões por 15 Min
Zero on both sides. Neither man hunts submissions; the finish is a strike or the cards
Cannonier leads in 3 categories · Duncan leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both men finish, but the profiles differ. Cannonier is the classic middleweight banger: 11 of his 18 wins by knockout, two by submission, and five on the cards, a sign he can win either way. Duncan leans even harder on impact: 10 of his 14 wins by TKO, one submission, and just three decisions — though his last two on the cards (Dolidze and Pulyaev) show he can stretch a fight too. It matters for the method: both prefer to end it early, but each carries the gas to reach the cards when the knockout doesn't come.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The loss profiles explain why this fight trends long. Cannonier has never been submitted in 27 pro fights: of his nine losses, six came on the cards and only three by strikes (and his middleweight ones, like the Imavov loss, came from accumulation, not a single shot). Duncan has a tiny sample, just two losses, but the point is strong: both came by decision — he has never been knocked out or submitted in his entire career. In practice: neither man folds easily, both chins are tough, and that's why the likeliest scenario is the fight stretching to the cards. The finish path exists, but it runs through Cannonier's heavy hand on a veteran who gets hit too much, not through the ground.
Skills Profile
Cannonier
vs
Duncan
Striking em Distância
+2 Duncan
Duncan is taller, longer, and more accurate at range. He wants the fight at the end of the jab, where his reach rules.
Poder de Nocaute
+1 Cannonier
Cannonier's shot is the heaviest and most proven in the fight. He's stopped Rodrigues, Brunson, and Gastelum. Duncan hits hard, but has never faced this caliber.
Defesa de Striking
+2 Duncan
A clear gap in the numbers. Duncan absorbs 2.59 strikes per minute to the veteran's 4.35. Cannonier gets hit too much, and at 42 that carries more weight.
Grappling e Clinch
Even
Neither man is a wrestler and their takedown defense is identical (63%). This barely touches the mat. A minimal edge for no one.
Cardio
+2 Duncan
At 42, with elite mileage banked, Cannonier is racing the clock. Duncan is 12 years younger, fresher, and more explosive in the third round.
Experiência
+3 Cannonier
Here the veteran pulls ahead. Cannonier has challenged for a belt and traded with Adesanya, Whittaker, and Gastelum. Duncan only just proved something against a top-10 name.
Duncan wins the physicals: younger, taller, longer, and far more defensively economical. Cannonier wins the one-shot power and the elite-level war experience, plus the common-opponent trump card — he finished the man Duncan couldn't solve. The fight is a duel between reach and the clock. If Duncan holds distance and pace for 15 minutes, the cards are his. If Cannonier closes the gap and lands the heavy hand, age becomes a footnote.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Christian Leroy Duncan wins because he's the younger, taller, longer man, far more defensively economical (2.59 strikes absorbed per minute to the veteran's 4.35) and because he just proved against Dolidze that he can control 15 minutes at range versus a dangerous opponent. Cannonier is 42, has won just one of his last four, and lost his last two to younger men (Page on the cards, Imavov by accumulation) in exactly the way Duncan fights: reach, volume, and pace. Duncan's path is to hold distance, punish with the jab and volume, make the veteran burn gas hunting the knockout, and bank the rounds. It breaks down for one concrete and far-from-trivial reason: Cannonier has the heaviest hand in the fight, finished Gregory Rodrigues (the man who beat Duncan), and the Englishman has never faced this caliber of power. If the veteran closes the distance and lands early, age becomes a footnote.
The thesis is: Christian Leroy Duncan wins because he's the younger, taller, longer man, far more defensively economical (2.59 strikes absorbed per minute to the veteran's 4.35) and because he just proved against Dolidze that he can control 15 minutes at range versus a dangerous opponent. Cannonier is 42, has won just one of his last four, and lost his last two to younger men (Page on the cards, Imavov by accumulation) in exactly the way Duncan fights: reach, volume, and pace. Duncan's path is to hold distance, punish with the jab and volume, make the veteran burn gas hunting the knockout, and bank the rounds. It breaks down for one concrete and far-from-trivial reason: Cannonier has the heaviest hand in the fight, finished Gregory Rodrigues (the man who beat Duncan), and the Englishman has never faced this caliber of power. If the veteran closes the distance and lands early, age becomes a footnote.
Conviction
Conviction 6, no higher, because the thesis is multi-dimensional (physicals, age, defensive metrics, and the style read) but the underdog path is concrete and uncomfortable: the common opponent, Gregory Rodrigues, beat Duncan and was finished by Cannonier. That's not a footnote, it's the strongest data point in the fight and it cuts against the favorite. What holds the lean on Duncan is the sum of youth, a two-inch reach edge, a three-inch height edge, far better defensive absorption, and recent proof that he controls 15 minutes against a dangerous grappler, all against a 42-year-old veteran who gets hit too much and has won one of his last four. This isn't a market read: the books have Duncan a heavy favorite, but I see the fight closer than suggests, precisely because of Cannonier's power and the Rodrigues parallel. The edge is in the Englishman's physicals and pace, not the line, and the conviction ceiling stays low because a single shot from the veteran rewrites the night.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Cannonier closes the distance and forces the exchange up close, the heaviest hand in the fight comes into play against a Duncan who has never felt this caliber of power.
- 02
The common opponent cuts against the favorite: Cannonier finished Rodrigues, the same man who beat Duncan. That alone demands respect for the underdog.
- 03
If Duncan trades up close instead of using his reach and movement, he steps onto the one turf where the veteran is still clearly superior.
- 04
The elite-experience gap is enormous: Cannonier traded with Adesanya, Whittaker, and Gastelum; Duncan only just beat a top-10 name.
Underdog Path
Cannonier doesn't need to win 15 minutes of boxing at range, he needs windows. He cuts the cage, forces the exchange up close and in the clinch where Duncan's reach matters less, and lands the heavy hand, the same one that stopped Rodrigues, Brunson, and Gastelum. Duncan has never felt this caliber of power, and Cannonier has already shown he finishes exactly the type of opponent (Rodrigues) the Englishman couldn't solve. If the fight turns into a close-quarters war in the first two rounds, the veteran's experience and shot decide it.
Required Conditions
- Cut the cage and deny the long range where Duncan's reach controls
- Force the exchange up close and in the clinch, taking the Englishman off the end of the jab
- Land the heavy hand early, before Duncan's volume and youth dictate the pace
- Don't let the fight become a points race at range, where the 42 years and high absorption weigh against him
— Precedent: Cannonier vs Gregory Rodrigues (February 2025): the veteran weathered a dangerous striker's pressure and broke him down with ground-and-pound in the fourth round. Rodrigues is the common opponent and beat Duncan on the cards. Cannonier already solved, by knockout, the problem Duncan couldn't, and he brings the heaviest hand on the Englishman's ledger.
Verdict
Winner
Christian Leroy Duncan
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Christian Leroy Duncan
Duncan because he's younger, taller, longer, more defensively economical, and just proved he can control 15 minutes at range. The problem is the price: there's no value left, and the common opponent (Cannonier finished the Rodrigues who beat Duncan) says the fight is closer than the line. Small stake, no fat.
- 02
How it ends (any fighter)
Fight goes to decision
Decision because both chins are iron: Cannonier has never been submitted in 27 fights and his middleweight losses came by accumulation or on the cards; Duncan has never been knocked out or submitted in his entire career. Duncan tends to control at range and stretch it. Breaks if Cannonier's heavy hand lands clean early.
- 03
Method (underdog)
Cannonier by KO/TKO
It's the cleanest path to the upset and it has to be acknowledged: Cannonier has the heaviest hand in the fight and finished Rodrigues, the man Duncan couldn't solve. The market pays well because Duncan has never been knocked out, but he's never felt this power. A conscious longshot, not the main read.
Most Likely Outcome
Fight goes to decision, moderate stake
In a conviction-6 fight between two iron chins, the soundest read isn't just the winner, it's how it ends. Cannonier has never been finished and Duncan has never been stopped; the likeliest scenario is the fight stretching to the cards, where the Englishman's distance and volume tend to show up. Moderate stake because the veteran's power keeps the knockout risk alive the whole way.
Stats That Matter
12
years separate them: Cannonier is 42, Duncan 30. Elite mileage against fresh legs
The veteran faces a younger man who is three inches taller and two inches longer
ZERO
times Duncan has been knocked out or submitted in his career. Both his losses came on the cards
Cannonier will need the cards or a perfect shot on a chin that has never cracked
R4
the round Cannonier stopped Gregory Rodrigues, the same man who beat Duncan on the cards
The common opponent cuts for the veteran and keeps the upset alarm live
The Trap
Duncan cruises just because he's the favorite
The market made Duncan a heavy favorite, near, and it's easy to treat the fight as a formality: the rising young man running over the fading veteran. The trap is ignoring two things. First, Cannonier's hand still puts real people out — he stopped Gregory Rodrigues in the fourth round, the same Rodrigues who beat Duncan. Second, Duncan has never faced power on this level, and Cannonier is the heaviest hitter on his ledger by a wide margin. favorite in a fight where the underdog finished the common opponent is a price that bakes in more certainty than the fight offers.
The market made Duncan a heavy favorite, near, and it's easy to treat the fight as a formality: the rising young man running over the fading veteran. The trap is ignoring two things. First, Cannonier's hand still puts real people out — he stopped Gregory Rodrigues in the fourth round, the same Rodrigues who beat Duncan. Second, Duncan has never faced power on this level, and Cannonier is the heaviest hitter on his ledger by a wide margin. favorite in a fight where the underdog finished the common opponent is a price that bakes in more certainty than the fight offers.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Jared "The Killa Gorilla" Cannonier vs Christian Leroy "CLD" Duncan | UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs Usman | July 18, 2026 | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA
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