June 6, 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Cachoeira
13-8-0
Not RankedRio de Janeiro, Brazil | 37 years old
Chandler
6-4-0
Not RankedStockton, USA | 35 years old
The Early KO vs The Higher Floor, Three Rounds
Cachoeira comes in on a two-fight skid and has never survived being competitive past the first round when she doesn't get the KO — absorbing 7.60 strikes per minute. Chandler is also two losses deep, but her baseline is legitimately higher: volume, purple belt grappling, three-round cardio. The market opened nearly even, Cachoeira and Chandler on. The question is simple: does Cachoeira connect early in R1, or does Chandler drag this thing into the late rounds?
FLOOR VS CEILING
She Wins in R1 or She Doesn't Win. Chandler Wins in the Final Minutes.
This fight is a textbook floor-versus-ceiling matchup — and the floor wins. Priscila Cachoeira is one of the most dangerous first-round bangers in the division: of her thirteen wins, eight came by KO or TKO, and in recent outings she has dispatched Josiane Nunes and Ariane Lipski with her heavy hands before the first round was over. That's her ceiling — and it's real and scary. But the floor is terrible. When fights survive the first round and she hasn't finished, the results fall apart: decision loss to Klaudia Sygula, submitted by anaconda from Jasmine Jasudavicius in R3, tapped to an armbar from Miranda Maverick in R3, and an outlier-bad 7.60 significant strikes absorbed per minute at just 46% defense. That's not a statistical quirk — it's a structural problem. Chelsea Chandler doesn't carry the same firepower, but her floor is a lot higher. A purple belt from Cesar Gracie, averaging 0.87 takedowns per fight at 60% accuracy, absorbing nearly half what Cachoeira absorbs (4.44 per minute), and she has taken three full fights to the cards — wins and competitive losses against Norma Dumont and Yana Santos. She holds up in late rounds. The two fighters share a pair of perfect mirrors: both were knocked out by Joselyne Edwards in R1, and both beat Josiane Nunes. That shared data neutralizes some of Cachoeira's ceiling — it shows she can also go down early. This isn't a technical read; it's a structural one. Whoever controls minutes eight through fifteen wins the cards.
This fight is a textbook floor-versus-ceiling matchup — and the floor wins. Priscila Cachoeira is one of the most dangerous first-round bangers in the division: of her thirteen wins, eight came by KO or TKO, and in recent outings she has dispatched Josiane Nunes and Ariane Lipski with her heavy hands before the first round was over. That's her ceiling — and it's real and scary. But the floor is terrible. When fights survive the first round and she hasn't finished, the results fall apart: decision loss to Klaudia Sygula, submitted by anaconda from Jasmine Jasudavicius in R3, tapped to an armbar from Miranda Maverick in R3, and an outlier-bad 7.60 significant strikes absorbed per minute at just 46% defense. That's not a statistical quirk — it's a structural problem. Chelsea Chandler doesn't carry the same firepower, but her floor is a lot higher. A purple belt from Cesar Gracie, averaging 0.87 takedowns per fight at 60% accuracy, absorbing nearly half what Cachoeira absorbs (4.44 per minute), and she has taken three full fights to the cards — wins and competitive losses against Norma Dumont and Yana Santos. She holds up in late rounds. The two fighters share a pair of perfect mirrors: both were knocked out by Joselyne Edwards in R1, and both beat Josiane Nunes. That shared data neutralizes some of Cachoeira's ceiling — it shows she can also go down early. This isn't a technical read; it's a structural one. Whoever controls minutes eight through fifteen wins the cards.
Truth A
Priscila Cachoeira has eight knockouts in thirteen wins and legitimately heavy hands. Her ceiling is finishing anyone in R1 — she did it to Josiane Nunes in March 2025 and to Ariane Lipski. If she lands the right hand or the uppercut in the first five minutes, it's over. That path is genuinely live, which is why the market has her nearly even.
Truth B
Chelsea Chandler has the higher floor. She absorbs 4.44 strikes per minute against Cachoeira's 7.60, holds a purple belt in jiu-jitsu with functional grappling (0.87 takedowns per fight, 60% accuracy), and has proven she can go the full distance multiple times. Cachoeira has ZERO submission offense (sub avg 0.00) and has been submitted four times in her career. Once the fight passes R1, the floor and the clock both belong to the American.
Tale of the Tape
Cachoeira born Aug 1988 (37), Chandler born Nov 1990 (35). Two-year age gap with no meaningful impact in a three-round fight.
Chandler is four centimeters taller. Slight height advantage.
Chandler's eight-centimeter reach advantage is real. It helps her keep Cachoeira's heavy hands at bay and control the outside.
Open stance matchup — orthodox vs southpaw. The outside-hand and outside-foot battle typically favors the southpaw with the longer reach.
Brazilian camp vs Cesar Gracie in Stockton. Chandler is a purple belt in jiu-jitsu — the foundation that backs up her grappling game.
Current Form
Priscila Cachoeira
Sygula controlled the distance and the pace for all three rounds. Cachoeira couldn't get her hands on her and lost the cards.
Unanimous DecisionEdwards found her shot early and finished at 2:24 of R1. Confirms that Cachoeira's chin can also go when it's a real stand-up war.
KO R1Cachoeira at her best. A clean uppercut folded Nunes in R1 at 2:46. Pure demonstration of the heavy hands that are her ceiling.
TKO R1Jasudavicius got the fight to the floor and submitted her via anaconda in R3 at 4:21. The pattern holds: when the fight goes past R1 and hits the ground, Cachoeira gets dominated.
Sub R3 (anaconda)Maverick submitted her via armbar in R3 at 2:11. Another late-round submission loss to a grappler — same script.
Sub R3 (armbar)A clear downward spiral with a recognizable pattern. Cachoeira is coming off back-to-back losses: a unanimous decision to Klaudia Sygula in February 2026 and a first-round KO stoppage against Joselyne Edwards in August 2025. Sandwiched in there is the best version of what she does — a first-round TKO of Josiane Nunes in March 2025, an uppercut that buckled Nunes cleanly. But the rest of her recent record tells the real story: when fights go beyond the first round, she tends to lose. She was submitted via anaconda by Jasmine Jasudavicius in R3 (Jan 2024) and tapped to an armbar from Miranda Maverick in R3 (Jul 2023). The profile is an explosive, heavy-handed banger with limited cardio and grappling — absorbing an outlier-bad 7.60 strikes per minute with just 46% strike defense. At 37, it's all or nothing in the first five minutes.
Chelsea Chandler
Edwards touched her chin early and stopped it at 2:31 of R1. Same fighter who KO'd Cachoeira — a shared opponent who hurt both of them the same way.
KO R1A competitive three-round decision against Yana Santos, a top-10 divisional name. Chandler went the full distance without being stopped.
Unanimous DecisionThe template for her game plan: volume and grappling for three rounds to beat Nunes on the cards. A shared opponent with Cachoeira — both won, but in completely different ways.
Unanimous DecisionUnanimous decision loss to Norma Dumont, one of the best in the division. Another full three-round fight without being stopped.
Unanimous DecisionTKO at 4:15 of R1 over Julija Stoliarenko. A reminder that Chandler can also finish when the opportunity is there.
TKO R1Inconsistent, but the foundation underneath is more solid. Chandler is also on a two-fight skid, but the context is different: the R1 KO loss to Joselyne Edwards in April 2025 and the unanimous decision loss to Yana Santos in August 2024 both came against legitimately ranked opponents. The win by decision over Josiane Nunes in March 2024 shows her playbook in action — volume, purple belt jiu-jitsu, and the cardio to drag fights to the cards. Almost all of her losses have come against division-caliber names: Norma Dumont, Yana Santos, Joselyne Edwards. She trains at Cesar Gracie in Stockton with a BJJ base. The real concern with her momentum is the layoff — she hasn't fought since April 2025, so she enters with roughly 14 months of inactivity, and ring rust is a genuine risk. But her style (volume plus grappling plus cardio) is the exact antidote to what Cachoeira brings.
Level of Competition
Two direct shared opponents, and both of them matter for this read. Joselyne Edwards knocked out both fighters in R1 — Edwards over Cachoeira in Aug 2025, Edwards over Chandler in Apr 2025 — which neutralizes a chunk of Cachoeira's ceiling: she has heavy hands, but her chin has also cracked in a real stand-up war, same as Chandler's. Josiane Nunes was defeated by both (Cachoeira by TKO R1, Chandler by decision), showing each fighter's style in action — the Brazilian finishes early, the American grinds to the cards. The level differential tilts slightly toward Chandler: her losses almost all came against division elite (Norma Dumont, Yana Santos, Joselyne Edwards), while Cachoeira's losses mix in elite names with same-level competition (Sygula). Overall, similar caliber, with Chandler having faced marginally tougher average opposition.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Cachoeira generates more raw volume. Forward pressure and heavy hands, but with higher energy cost and more exposure.
Strike Accuracy (%)
Nearly dead-even on accuracy. Cachoeira at 44% vs Chandler at 45%. Marginal difference.
Strikes Absorbed/Min
KEY STAT. Cachoeira absorbs 7.60 per minute (outlier-bad), Chandler absorbs 4.44. Almost twice the damage absorbed.
Strike Defense (%)
Cachoeira defends only 46% of incoming strikes — fragile defense. Chandler at 40%, also not high, but she absorbs far less damage in aggregate.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Chandler attempts takedowns three times more often (0.87 vs 0.25). That's how she dictates where the fight happens and keeps Cachoeira out of her power range.
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Chandler at 60% accuracy vs Cachoeira's 40%. When the American reaches for the trip, she connects.
Takedown Defense (%)
Cachoeira defends 70% of takedown attempts, Chandler just 29%. But Cachoeira has been submitted four times on the ground — defending the entry isn't the problem, holding position is.
Cachoeira leads in 3 categories · Chandler leads in 4
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Opposite profiles. Cachoeira is a stand-up finisher: eight of thirteen wins by KO/TKO (62%), zero by submission (0%), and five by decision (38%). Her weapon is obvious — the heavy hands that have folded Josiane Nunes and Ariane Lipski in the first round. Chandler is more balanced and wins on the cards more often: three of six wins by decision (50%), two by KO/TKO (33%), and one by submission (17%), reflecting a game built on volume, grappling, and cardio. For method betting: Cachoeira finishing is only plausible via early KO (zero history of offensive submission), while Chandler trends toward the cards. Decision is the most likely method for the American if she wins.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Structurally decisive stat. Cachoeira has eight losses: four by submission (50%), three by decision (38%), and one by KO/TKO (13%). The submission number is the load-bearing one — she was taken down and finished on the ground by Jasudavicius (anaconda) and Maverick (armbar) in the late rounds, exactly the scenario a purple belt like Chandler can hunt for. Chandler has four losses: three by decision (75%) and one by KO/TKO (25%, the Edwards finish) — and she has NEVER been submitted. For method picks: Chandler has an open path to a finish on the ground (Cachoeira has been submitted four times), while Cachoeira's only realistic finishing mechanism is the early KO, because Chandler is not stoppable via submission and closes out the late rounds.
Skills Profile
Cachoeira
vs
Chandler
Knockout Power
+3 Cachoeira
Cachoeira has eight KOs in thirteen wins and genuinely heavy hands. This is her biggest weapon and the most realistic path to a win.
Striking Volume
+1 Cachoeira
Cachoeira puts out more raw volume (4.43 vs 3.55 SLpM), but she spends more and exposes herself more doing it. Slight edge in pure output.
Grappling and Ground Control
+3 Chandler
Chandler is a purple belt in jiu-jitsu, attempts three times the takedowns (0.87 vs 0.25) at 60% accuracy. Cachoeira has ZERO grappling offense (sub avg 0.00).
Durability and Submission Defense
+3 Chandler
Cachoeira absorbs 7.60 per minute and has been submitted four times. Chandler absorbs 4.44, has never been stopped via submission, and has gone the full distance multiple times. A much higher baseline.
Cardio and Three-Round Capacity
+3 Chandler
Cachoeira only wins when she finishes early — when the fight goes past R1, she loses. Chandler went three full rounds with Dumont, Santos, and Nunes. Cardio and fight management belong to her.
Reach and Range Management
+2 Chandler
Chandler has eight centimeters of reach and fights southpaw against orthodox. She can work the outside and keep Cachoeira from getting into her power range.
The profile is clear. Cachoeira dominates exactly one scenario — the stand-up exchange in R1 — where her power can end the fight at any moment. Outside of that window, in sustained volume, grappling, cardio, and durability, the advantages all belong to Chandler. This fight is a race: either Cachoeira lands her shot in the first five minutes, or Chandler uses reach, takedowns, and conditioning to drag things into the late rounds — historically fatal territory for Cachoeira. The higher floor wins the cards.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis: Chelsea Chandler wins because she has the higher floor in a three-round fight. Cachoeira only wins via early KO — eight finishes, zero submission offense — and when she doesn't get it in R1 she falls apart, absorbing 7.60 strikes per minute with four career submission losses. Chandler absorbs nearly half the damage, holds a purple belt in jiu-jitsu with functional grappling, and has proven she can go the full distance multiple times.
The thesis: Chelsea Chandler wins because she has the higher floor in a three-round fight. Cachoeira only wins via early KO — eight finishes, zero submission offense — and when she doesn't get it in R1 she falls apart, absorbing 7.60 strikes per minute with four career submission losses. Chandler absorbs nearly half the damage, holds a purple belt in jiu-jitsu with functional grappling, and has proven she can go the full distance multiple times.
The path runs through surviving or neutralizing the first five minutes, then using reach and her southpaw base to keep Cachoeira on the outside, mixing in opportunistic takedowns to drain her gas tank, and closing the cards in minutes eight through fifteen — historically fatal territory for Cachoeira.
This collapses if Cachoeira connects cleanly in R1 before Chandler establishes her jab and range.
Conviction
Conviction 6 — a lean, not a strong lean — because (1) Chandler's baseline is genuinely higher: she absorbs half the damage, holds a purple belt, and has proven she can last three rounds against Dumont, Santos, and Nunes, while Cachoeira only wins when she finishes early and has zero submission offense. But conviction doesn't push past 6 because Cachoeira's early KO path is real and dangerous — eight knockouts and hands that can end fights; (b) Chandler's roughly 14-month layoff is a concrete ring rust risk right in the most dangerous window; and (c) Chandler's own takedown defense sits at just 29% and she doesn't always seek the ground, so part of her grappling advantage is inferred, not guaranteed. This is betting on the higher floor in a close fight — not a confident-favorite call.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Cachoeira lands the heavy shot clean in R1 before Chandler can establish her jab and takedown game — eight KOs means this path is genuinely alive
- 02
Chandler's roughly 14-month layoff produces visible ring rust and she enters slow in the first minutes, exactly the window where she's most vulnerable
- 03
The fight stays exclusively on the feet (Chandler's takedown defense is just 29% and she doesn't always hunt for the ground) and in a pure stand-up war Chandler's advantage is less defined
Underdog Path
Cachoeira's path is singular and familiar: connect the heavy shot in the first five minutes. Right hand over the top or an uppercut in a phone-booth exchange when Chandler steps in — exactly what she did to Josiane Nunes (TKO R1) and Ariane Lipski (TKO R1). Cachoeira has eight KOs in thirteen wins, so the power is legitimate. If the fight turns into a real stand-up war before her gas tank empties and before Chandler can get the clinch, she can end it at any moment.
Required Conditions
- Connect the heavy shot clean in the first round, before the cardio becomes a factor
- Defend Chandler's takedowns and clinch attempts to keep the fight on the feet
- Force the stand-up exchanges at close range without conceding the outside to a longer southpaw
- Don't let the fight reach the later rounds, where her historical record completely falls apart
— Precedent: Cachoeira stopped Josiane Nunes via TKO in R1 (Mar 2025) and Ariane Lipski via TKO in R1, proving the heavy hands are real and can end fights when they land early. But the other side of the ledger is equally relevant: when the early finish hasn't come, she's lost her last few outings — decision loss to Sygula, submitted by Jasudavicius and Maverick both in R3. The KO precedent is real; so is the late-fight fragility.
Verdict
Winner
Chelsea Chandler
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Method
Chandler by Decision
The primary pick. Chandler wins via decision in 50% of her wins, has never been stopped, and closes fights out. Cachoeira falls apart past R1. The implied is 36%, estimated at 40-45%. Moderate edge — the cleanest value in the fight.
- 02
Total Rounds
Over 1.5 Rounds
Cachoeira's danger is concentrated in R1. If the fight gets past the first round, the lean swings heavily toward Chandler and the cards. Watch for the early KO, but the thesis is that Chandler survives and grinds it out.
- 03
Winner
Chandler
Near-even line, implied ~55%, estimated ~60%. There's thin direct value here, but it's minimal. Better to play via method (decision) for the bigger return, or slot into a parlay with another high-floor favorite on the card.
- 04
Method Underdog
Cachoeira by KO/TKO
High-risk contrarian play. Only runs if Cachoeira connects early in R1. Real probability at 25-30% — the power exists and Chandler is coming off a long layoff. The implied is 29%, which lines up with the estimate. This is a hedge, not a strong value play.
Most Likely Outcome
Chandler by Decision
The best direct value on the board. Combines the primary pick (Chandler wins) with the most likely method (decision). Chandler goes to the cards in 50% of her wins, has never been stopped, and dominates the back end of fights — while Cachoeira's only realistic finishing mechanism is the early KO and she carries zero submission offense. The implied is 36% against an estimated 40-45% based on the structural matchup. Four-to-nine point edge, solid for a close fight.
Stats That Matter
7.60 vs 4.44
Strikes absorbed per minute: Cachoeira vs Chandler
Cachoeira absorbs almost twice the damage. An outlier-bad number that explains why she doesn't survive late rounds.
4
Submission losses for Cachoeira
Half of her eight losses came via submission on the ground (Jasudavicius by anaconda, Maverick by armbar, and others). Chandler is a purple belt with that path open.
0
Cachoeira's submission offense
Sub avg 0.00 and zero wins by submission. Her only finishing mechanism is KO, and it has to come early.
/
Near-even odds on
Market reads this as a toss-up. Implied probability ~52% for Chandler, estimated at ~55%. Thin edge — value is in the method (decision).
The Trap
Trap: Cachoeira by KO at Inflated Odds
The market will offer decent return on "Cachoeira by KO/TKO" given the recent stoppages of Josiane Nunes and Ariane Lipski. The path is real, but it has two holes in it. First, Cachoeira's own chin has failed — she was knocked out in R1 by Joselyne Edwards, the same fighter who also knocked out Chandler, so in a pure stand-up war she can go down too. Second, Chandler has an eight-centimeter reach advantage, fights out of a southpaw stance, and has a takedown game to pull Cachoeira off her power distance. Betting the early KO is betting that Cachoeira wins the only scenario she dominates — before Chandler imposes her own game — and that's an extremely narrow window.
The market will offer decent return on "Cachoeira by KO/TKO" given the recent stoppages of Josiane Nunes and Ariane Lipski. The path is real, but it has two holes in it. First, Cachoeira's own chin has failed — she was knocked out in R1 by Joselyne Edwards, the same fighter who also knocked out Chandler, so in a pure stand-up war she can go down too. Second, Chandler has an eight-centimeter reach advantage, fights out of a southpaw stance, and has a takedown game to pull Cachoeira off her power distance. Betting the early KO is betting that Cachoeira wins the only scenario she dominates — before Chandler imposes her own game — and that's an extremely narrow window.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Priscila "Zombie Girl" Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler | UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim | June 6, 2026 | Meta APEX, Las Vegas
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