July 25, 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Ankalaev
21-2-1
#1 Light HeavyweightMakhachkala, Dagestan | 34 years old
Guskov
18-3-1
#9 Light HeavyweightTashkent, Uzbekistan | 33 years old
The Shadow of Eighty Seconds
A 14-fight unbeaten run ended in 80 seconds against Pereira. Now Ankalaev returns against the man who won all 18 of his fights without a judge, and whom nobody else wanted any part of.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
A Chasm Against One Right Hand
The three shared opponents tell the story the rankings hide. Volkan Oezdemir went 15 minutes with Ankalaev in 2021 and didn't win a round; two years later, the same Oezdemir submitted Guskov in under five minutes. Nikita Krylov lost wire-to-wire to the Dagestani; Guskov starched an older Krylov in the first round. And Jan Blachowicz drew with both men — against Ankalaev in a vacant-title fight, against Guskov at age 42. Same test, administered twice, with report cards from different schools. What Guskov does have — and it's non-negotiable — is the right hand. Eighteen career wins, 18 finishes, 15 by knockout, and not one judge ever needed. He nearly put Blachowicz away in round 2 last December (two 10-8 scorecards) and took this fight in 30 seconds, on two weeks' notice, after Blachowicz himself and Paulo Costa both said. Courage isn't the problem. The resume is: the best win of his life is a late-stage Krylov, and the only real grappler he's faced in the UFC submitted him inside a round. On the other side, the most recent image of Ankalaev is the worst of his career: 80 seconds against Pereira, the first knockout he'd ever absorbed in 12 years. Before that, 14 fights unbeaten against the top of the division. The whole fight boils down to one question: were those 80 seconds an accident against one of the greatest knockout artists the sport has produced, or the first crack in a chin starting to decline? The answer decides whether this is a five-round monologue or the upset of the year.
Truth A
Ankalaev is on a different shelf. He went the full 25 minutes with Pereira, handled Oezdemir and Krylov — the very names that define Guskov's ceiling — and owns the grappling the Uzbek has never learned to defend. On paper, it's the most lopsided main event in years.
Truth B
The last memory of Ankalaev's chin is him collapsing in 80 seconds. Guskov owns 15 knockouts, said yes without blinking, and doesn't need to win 25 minutes — he needs one. And there's a detail the market won't forget: nobody else wanted this fight.
Tale of the Tape
Born in the same 1992, three months apart
Guskov's 1-inch reach edge is the only physical item in his favor
Current Form
Magomed Ankalaev
UFC 320. The rematch lasted 80 seconds: overhand right, follow-up elbows on the mat, and the belt went back to Pereira. First knockout loss of his career.
TKO R1UFC 313. Five rounds of range control and tactical reads to take Pereira's belt on the scorecards.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 308 in Abu Dhabi. Beat the No. 5 contender 29-28 across the board and locked up his title shot.
Unanimous DecisionImmediate rematch after the no contest. Ended it with a right hook-uppercut at 2:42 of round 2.
TKO R2UFC 294, Abu Dhabi. An illegal Ankalaev knee on a grounded Walker ended the fight in round 1 with no result.
No ContestFourteen fights without a loss turned into 80 seconds of disaster. The Pereira KO at UFC 320 took the belt and shelved Ankalaev for nearly ten months, but the camp was already built: he was deep in preparation for Khalil Rountree Jr. when an injury swapped opponents. His line this week ("I'll fight anybody, anywhere, anytime") and his track record say he comes back locked in: the only other loss of his career, to Paul Craig in 2018, kicked off a 14-fight unbeaten run.
Bogdan Guskov
UFC 323. Nearly finished the former champ in round 2, earning 10-8s from two judges, then got dropped late in the third. 28-28, 28-28 and 29-28 for the Pole.
Majority DrawIn Abu Dhabi, in the same cage as Saturday. Flattened the veteran with his hands at 4:18 of round 1.
KO R1UFC 311. Guillotine at 3:33 of round 2 against a short-notice debutant. Did the job in front of him.
Sub R2Ran over the veteran with his hands in round 2, the win that put his name on the rankings radar.
TKO R2First UFC win, a first-round knockout, five months after dropping his debut to Oezdemir.
KO R1Five fights unbeaten, four finishes and a draw that still stings: Guskov battered Jan Blachowicz in round 2 (two 10-8 cards), then got dropped late in round 3 and left with a majority draw. He was mid-camp for the Belgrade rematch when the UFC called with Ankalaev on two weeks' notice. He said yes in 30 seconds, after Blachowicz himself and Paulo Costa both passed. In his words: "I knew from the start that nobody would want to fight Magomed."
Level of Competition
The three shared opponents are the X-ray of this fight. Volkan Oezdemir lost every round to Ankalaev in 2021; two years later, he submitted Guskov inside the first round of the Uzbek's UFC debut. Nikita Krylov got outclassed by Ankalaev on the cards in 2021; Guskov, credit where due, flattened an older Krylov in one round in 2025. And Jan Blachowicz drew with both — against Ankalaev in a 2022 vacant-title fight, against Guskov at 42 years old last December. Same names, very different weight to the results.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Guskov throws more volume per minute, but it was built against far lesser calibre
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Similar accuracy; the difference is in who gets hit back
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
The stat that defines the striking match: Ankalaev barely gets touched
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Takedowns por 15 Min
Guskov has never attempted a takedown in the UFC; Ankalaev grapples whenever he wants to change the terrain
Defesa de Takedown (%)
88% against 57% — and that 57% door is the one Oezdemir walked through to submit Guskov in a round
Submissões por 15 Min
Ankalaev doesn't hunt submissions (zero in his career); Guskov's guillotine is real, but has never met a true grappler
Ankalaev leads in 5 categories · Guskov leads in 2
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The numbers tell two opposite careers. Guskov has never heard a scorecard read after a win: 18 victories, 18 finishes, 15 by knockout. Ankalaev is the opposite — a patient accumulator: when the opponent survives the early damage, he wins on the cards (10 of 21 wins, including Pereira, Rakic and Thiago Santos). For the method here, the read is clean: if Guskov wins, it's a knockout; if Ankalaev wins, the likeliest route is 25 minutes of control.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Small samples on both sides, which is exactly why the patterns matter more. Ankalaev has lost twice in 12 years: a last-second Paul Craig triangle in 2018 and the 80-second Pereira KO. In other words, the only recent way anyone has beaten him is elite one-shot power — which happens to be the only weapon Guskov carries, and it's what keeps the upset breathing. The Uzbek, meanwhile, has lost every way there is (one KO, one submission, one decision), and the submission is the loudest data point: Oezdemir, no grappling specialist, finished Guskov inside the first round of his UFC debut. Against Ankalaev's Greco-Roman base and clinch, that door swings wide open.
Skills Profile
Ankalaev
vs
Guskov
Striking em Distância
+2 Ankalaev
A precise, economical southpaw who managed range against Pereira for 25 minutes in their first fight. Guskov throws more volume, but against far lesser calibre.
Striking em Curta Distância
+1 Guskov
In a close-range firefight, Guskov's hands are the most dangerous thing in the cage: that's how he broke Blachowicz, Krylov and Spann.
Poder de Nocaute
+2 Guskov
Fifteen KOs in 18 wins and a 1.38 knockdown average per 15 minutes, against Ankalaev's 0.56. Power is the underdog's entire argument.
Defesa de Striking
+3 Ankalaev
Ankalaev absorbs 2.59 strikes per minute; Guskov absorbs 3.40 and got dropped by a 42-year-old Blachowicz.
Grappling e Clinch
+4 Ankalaev
Greco-Roman base, 88% takedown defense and elite clinch control against a Guskov who defends at 57% and got submitted in one round by Oezdemir.
Cardio (5 rounds)
+3 Ankalaev
Ankalaev has gone 25 minutes three times since 2022. Guskov has never seen round 4 in the UFC and took this on two weeks' notice.
On paper this is about as lopsided as a main event gets: Ankalaev is better at range, on defense, in the grappling and over five rounds. Guskov's entire fight fits in one sentence: land the right hand before the technical gap starts compounding.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Ankalaev wins because the calibre chasm is real and measurable — the three shared opponents tell it (Oezdemir lost every round to Ankalaev in 2021 and submitted Guskov inside the first round in 2023) — because the underdog's only weapon runs into the best defense he has ever faced (Ankalaev absorbs 2.59 significant strikes per minute and stuffs 88% of takedowns; Guskov absorbs 3.40, defends 57% and got dropped by a 42-year-old Blachowicz), and because the context all leans one way (Guskov took this on two weeks' notice, mid-camp for another fight, while Ankalaev had a full camp).
The thesis is: Ankalaev wins because the calibre chasm is real and measurable — the three shared opponents tell it (Oezdemir lost every round to Ankalaev in 2021 and submitted Guskov inside the first round in 2023) — because the underdog's only weapon runs into the best defense he has ever faced (Ankalaev absorbs 2.59 significant strikes per minute and stuffs 88% of takedowns; Guskov absorbs 3.40, defends 57% and got dropped by a 42-year-old Blachowicz), and because the context all leans one way (Guskov took this on two weeks' notice, mid-camp for another fight, while Ankalaev had a full camp).
The path is Ankalaev managing range as a southpaw through the first two rounds, respecting the right hand, tying up in the clinch when exchanges heat up, and mixing in takedowns from round 3 on, when the short notice starts charging interest, cruising on the scorecards. It breaks down if the Pereira KO left a mark: a hesitant Ankalaev standing still at overhand range is the one script where Guskov's hand finds its target.
Conviction
Conviction 7 because the thesis crosses four independent dimensions: stats (2.59 versus 3.40 strikes absorbed per minute, 88% versus 57% takedown defense), level of competition (Guskov's streak came against Pauga, Elekana, Spann and veterans; Ankalaev's came against Pereira twice, Rakic, and Blachowicz in a title fight), style (the Uzbek has never solved the grappling problem — he got submitted by the only opponent who seriously tried), and qualitative intel (two weeks' notice, a camp built for a different opponent, and the rest of the division turned the fight down). It's not an 8 or a 9 for one honest reason: nobody knows how Ankalaev returns from the first knockout of his career, and the underdog market is betting on exactly that unknown. Until that question gets answered in the cage, 7 is the ceiling.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Ankalaev comes out hesitant, refusing exchanges and never tying up in the clinch through the first two rounds, the KO left a mark — and every minute standing at overhand range is another coin in Guskov's slot machine.
- 02
If Guskov comfortably defends the first takedown and clinch entries, the favorite's safety valve disappears and the fight becomes exactly what the underdog needs: a pure striking match.
- 03
If ten months of rust shows up in Ankalaev's counter timing, the precision that holds up his entire game degrades in the worst possible matchup for it.
- 04
If Guskov's gas tank holds up well through rounds 3 and 4 (he was mid-camp for another fight, the short notice didn't catch him cold), the late-fade thesis weakens and the scorecards get more nervous.
Underdog Path
Guskov opens the way he always opens: high pressure, right hand flying. An Ankalaev fresh off a knockout takes too long to accept the exchanges, fights on the back foot, and lets the Uzbek build confidence. Late in round 1 or in round 2, in a close-range exchange, the overhand lands on the chin that just failed against Pereira. Guskov doesn't manage leads — he finishes: one follow-up sequence on the mat and the underdog becomes light heavyweight's story of the year. He doesn't need 25 minutes. He needs one punch.
Required Conditions
- Land the clean right hand inside the first two rounds, before Ankalaev's rhythm settles in
- Defend the first clinch and takedown entries (his 57% takedown defense needs a well-above-average night)
- Ankalaev actually returns gun-shy from the KO and agrees to trade standing still in the pocket
- Keep the pressure without emptying the tank: if he burns everything in round 1 and the fight goes on, the short notice becomes an anchor
— Precedent: Curtis Blaydes vs Derrick Lewis (February 2021): a wide, technically superior favorite exposed himself on the wrong entry against a one-weapon underdog and got flattened by an uppercut. That's the exact mold of what Guskov needs — not to win the fight, but to win one moment.
Verdict
Winner
Magomed Ankalaev
Method
Unanimous Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Magomed Ankalaev
The read is right, the price isn't: implies 84% and our number is 79. Works as a parlay anchor, not a standalone play. Breaks if Guskov's right hand finds a hesitant Ankalaev early.
- 02
Método
Ankalaev by decision
The whole profile points here: 10 of Ankalaev's 21 wins came on the scorecards, he has just two finishes in his last nine fights, he doesn't hunt submissions (zero in his career), and Guskov has never been knocked out inside the UFC (his only UFC stoppage loss was the Oezdemir submission, and Ankalaev doesn't hunt submissions). The method line wasn't confirmed in a public source at the time of writing — check your book; it historically pays far better than the stretched moneyline.
Most Likely Outcome
Ankalaev by decision, moderate stake
It's the modal outcome: when an opponent survives the early damage, Ankalaev manages and wins on the cards (Pereira, Rakic, Santos, Oezdemir, Krylov). Guskov is tough, has never been knocked out in the UFC, and that pushes this fight toward the distance if the favorite doesn't gamble. Conviction 7 means moderate stake, not aggressive: the post-KO comeback unknown is real.
Stats That Matter
3
shared opponents, all pointing the same way: Oezdemir lost every round to Ankalaev and submitted Guskov inside one
Krylov and Blachowicz complete the calibre X-ray
88%
Ankalaev's takedown defense, against Guskov's 57% — the door Oezdemir walked through in his UFC debut
The favorite's plan B is the deepest hole in the fight
ZERO
rounds 4 or 5 in Guskov's UFC career — he has never been past round 3
Now it's a five-round main event on two weeks' notice
The Trap
Guskov by knockout
It's the bet the public will pile on: Ankalaev just got flattened in 80 seconds, Guskov owns 15 knockouts, the math looks obvious. But the Pereira KO is the lone exception in 12 years for a fighter who absorbs just 2.59 strikes per minute, and Guskov's power was built against Pauga, Elekana, Spann and an aging Krylov — never against anyone near the Dagestani's technical and defensive level, who can also end the striking match in the clinch whenever he wants. Pereira and Guskov only resemble each other in the headline.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan "Hitman" Guskov | UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov | July 25, 2026 | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates