July 25, 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Aliev
11-0-0
UnrankedDushanbe, Tajikistan | 25 years old
Davis
12-3-0
UnrankedOrlando, Florida | 33 years old
Control vs. Power
Undefeated Nurullo Aliev wants to drag Mike Davis into deep wrestling water. Davis, out nearly a year, is betting the heavy hands settle it first.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
The Favorite Isn't the Harder Hitter
There's a strange inversion in this fight. The betting favorite is Nurullo Aliev, undefeated, 11-0, but he has just 2 career knockouts, both on the regional scene, and won 9 of his 11 fights by decision. The underdog is Mike Davis, who hits far harder, 8 KOs in 12 wins, and has never been knocked out across 15 pro fights. The power is on the underdog's side. The favoritism is on the side of control. That's because this fight isn't decided on power, it's decided on wrestling and the clock. Aliev has 80% takedown defense, a control game that dominated grappler Joe Solecki, and the youth of a 25-year-old against Davis's 33. And there's the factor that outweighs any stat: Davis sat out nearly a year, described himself as 'cursed with internal disorders,' has fought just five times since 2021, and admitted he was 'slow, conserving energy' last time out. Aliev will want to drag this into deep water, back Davis into the cage and test the veteran's cardio and rust. Davis's path is clear and real: defend the takedowns with his size, keep it standing, let his hands go. But he has to do all of it coming off a layoff, against a hard-to-hit target (Aliev absorbs just 1.8 strikes per minute) who wants to drag the fight exactly to the place where age and activity decide it.
There's a strange inversion in this fight. The betting favorite is Nurullo Aliev, undefeated, 11-0, but he has just 2 career knockouts, both on the regional scene, and won 9 of his 11 fights by decision. The underdog is Mike Davis, who hits far harder, 8 KOs in 12 wins, and has never been knocked out across 15 pro fights. The power is on the underdog's side. The favoritism is on the side of control. That's because this fight isn't decided on power, it's decided on wrestling and the clock. Aliev has 80% takedown defense, a control game that dominated grappler Joe Solecki, and the youth of a 25-year-old against Davis's 33. And there's the factor that outweighs any stat: Davis sat out nearly a year, described himself as 'cursed with internal disorders,' has fought just five times since 2021, and admitted he was 'slow, conserving energy' last time out. Aliev will want to drag this into deep water, back Davis into the cage and test the veteran's cardio and rust. Davis's path is clear and real: defend the takedowns with his size, keep it standing, let his hands go. But he has to do all of it coming off a layoff, against a hard-to-hit target (Aliev absorbs just 1.8 strikes per minute) who wants to drag the fight exactly to the place where age and activity decide it.
Truth A
Davis is the bigger man, hits far harder (8 KOs to 2), has never been put away. If he defends the takedowns and keeps it standing, volume and power settle it.
Truth B
Aliev is the more reliable wrestler, with 80% takedown defense and control over grapplers like Solecki, is eight years younger and comes in active against a Davis who sat out nearly a year with health issues. The fight lives in deep water, where age and activity decide it.
Tale of the Tape
Aliev is 8 years younger
Davis is 2 inches taller
Basically even, half an inch apart
Aliev undefeated in the UFC, Davis more experienced but uneven due to injuries
Current Form
Nurullo Aliev
Controlled and won a clear decision, stretching the unbeaten run to 11-0. Wrestling and pressure in charge again.
Unanimous DecisionReturn from nearly two years out with injury. Outgrappled a grappler, controlled Solecki and won the decision. The best credential on his resume.
Unanimous DecisionUFC debut. A tight, gray majority decision, but he got the win.
Majority DecisionContender Series. Ground-and-pound and a first-round stoppage to earn the UFC contract.
TKO R1Eagle FC. Another decision on the regional scene, on the road to the UFC.
Unanimous DecisionUnbeaten in 11 and 3-0 in the UFC, all by decision off wrestling and control. Came back from an injury layoff to beat grappler Joe Solecki and Shem Rock in 2025. He's 25, active, and plays the safest game there is: press, take you down, control, win the cards. The caveat isn't form, it's the ceiling: just 2 career KOs and low striking output. He almost never finishes, but he almost never loses a round.
Mike Davis
Stopped Ramirez with a knee and punches in round 2, but said he was 'slow, conserving energy.' Back in the win column, if below his best.
TKO R2Outpointed by the rangy Ziam and 'didn't look like himself.' The blueprint for beating Davis: keep it long and pick him apart.
Unanimous DecisionSubmitted Levy with an arm-triangle in round 2. A reminder Davis has a ground game too, not just the heavy hands.
Submission R2Clear decision over striker Borshchev, winning the rounds standing.
Unanimous DecisionFight of the Night. A three-round war won on grit and volume.
Unanimous Decision2-1 in his last three, coming off a stoppage of Ramirez, but the record is hostage to injuries: just five fights since 2021 and nearly a year out before this one. Davis described himself as 'cursed with internal disorders' and admitted he fought 'slow, conserving energy' last time. The power is intact, 8 KOs in 12 wins and never been put away, but the activity and three-round cardio are the big question marks. He wants to finish: 'I just need to go out there and finish this guy, and they won't overlook me anymore.'
Level of Competition
No common opponents. Aliev built his 3-0 UFC run on control, beating grappler Joe Solecki, striker Rafael Alves and Shem Rock, all by decision, all unranked. Davis, 5-2 in the UFC, has the more uneven record because of injuries, but flashier wins: he submitted Natan Levy, beat Mason Jones in a Fight of the Night and stopped Mitch Ramirez. Even opponent calibre, both at prospect-and-veteran level, no clear resume gap either way.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Davis throws more than double the volume
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Aliev is much harder to hit
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Takedowns por 15 Min
Similar volume, but Aliev is the control wrestler, Davis mixes in takedowns off exchanges
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Defesa de Takedown (%)
The number that decides it: Aliev's 80% against Davis's 66%
Submissões por 15 Min
Aliev leads in 4 categories · Davis leads in 4
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Opposite winning profiles. Davis is the finisher: 8 KOs in 12 wins, 10 of his 12 by stoppage, a guy who ends fights. Aliev is the opposite, the accumulator: 9 of his 11 wins by decision, just 2 KOs (both on the regional scene) and zero submissions in his career. For the method here, that's everything: Davis needs a moment of impact, Aliev will build it on the cards. Whoever imposes his own game wins his own way.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Aliev has no losses to dissect, 11-0, but the undefeated sample hides that he's never been tested by real power. Davis is the opposite, his loss record tells the story: never knocked out in 15 fights (a chin that's held up against everyone), and of his 3 losses, two came by decision and one by submission, to an elite Gilbert Burns in 2019. The read matters for this matchup: Aliev isn't a finisher (zero career submissions), so Burns's choke isn't the script. What beat Davis was getting outpointed, controlled, the Ziam decision in February 2025. And control and decision are exactly Aliev's game. If Davis loses, that's the mold, not a stoppage.
Skills Profile
Aliev
vs
Davis
Striking em Distância
+2 Davis
Davis throws more than double the volume (5.83 to 2.33 strikes per minute) and is the bigger man at range. Aliev conserves his shots, lives off takedown entries.
Striking em Curta Distância
+2 Davis
In the pocket Davis's heavy hands win, but Aliev would rather turn close range into a clinch and a takedown than trade.
Poder de Nocaute
+4 Davis
8 KOs in 12 wins for Davis against Aliev's 2 regional KOs. A glaring power gap, the biggest one in the fight.
Defesa de Striking
+2 Aliev
Aliev is much harder to hit: he absorbs 1.8 strikes per minute to Davis's 6, and Davis lives in firefights and takes damage.
Grappling e Clinch
+3 Aliev
Aliev's number-one asset: 80% takedown defense and the control that dominated grappler Joe Solecki. Davis has already been submitted by an elite grappler.
Cardio (3 rounds)
+2 Aliev
Aliev is 8 years younger, goes to decision constantly and comes in active. Davis sat out nearly a year and admitted he conserved energy last time.
Davis owns the striking and the power; Aliev owns the wrestling, the strike defense and the clock. The question isn't who's more skilled, it's whether Aliev can get the fight to the mat and into deep water before Davis lands the heavy hands.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Nurullo Aliev wins because he has the wrestling and control to dictate where the fight happens, with 80% takedown defense and three straight UFC decisions dominating grapplers like Joe Solecki, because he's eight years younger and coming in active while Mike Davis sat out nearly a year with health problems he called 'internal disorders' and has fought just five times since 2021, and because Aliev doesn't need to finish: he banks rounds against a Davis who, dangerous as he is, absorbs 6 strikes per minute and lives in firefights.
The thesis is: Nurullo Aliev wins because he has the wrestling and control to dictate where the fight happens, with 80% takedown defense and three straight UFC decisions dominating grapplers like Joe Solecki, because he's eight years younger and coming in active while Mike Davis sat out nearly a year with health problems he called 'internal disorders' and has fought just five times since 2021, and because Aliev doesn't need to finish: he banks rounds against a Davis who, dangerous as he is, absorbs 6 strikes per minute and lives in firefights.
The path is Aliev weathering Davis's power over the first ten minutes, backing him into the cage, hunting takedowns and managing control time to the cards. It breaks down if Davis defends the takedowns with his size and reach, keeps the fight standing and lands the heavy hands, 8 KOs in 12 wins, on a Tajik who has gone to decision in nearly every fight and has never faced this kind of power.
Conviction
Conviction 6, no higher, because the underdog path is concrete and backed by three real things: Davis is the bigger man, hits far harder (8 KOs to 2) and has never been knocked out. What holds the thesis on Aliev and keeps it from dropping to 5 is the stack of reliable wrestling (80% takedown defense, control over Solecki), youth and activity against a 33-year-old Davis who sat out nearly a year with health issues and admitted he fought 'slow, conserving energy' last time. This isn't a market read or a bet on the line: the edge comes from control, age and the opponent's layoff. But Davis's power is too real to call this a safe bet.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Davis stuffs the takedowns early with his size and reach, forcing Aliev to strike, the Tajik's 2.33 strikes per minute lose the standing rounds to the American's volume.
- 02
If Davis's heavy hands land clean, 8 KOs in 12 wins, Aliev has never faced this power and could be the first to be stopped by it. One shot flips the night.
- 03
If Davis's cardio holds up over three rounds without the layoff biting, his volume (5.83 to 2.33) piles up on the cards and the decision goes the wrong way.
- 04
If Aliev can't get sustained control, Davis has 66% takedown defense and the ability to get back up, and the fight turns into close, stealable standing rounds.
Underdog Path
Davis uses his size and reach to defend the early takedowns, keeps Aliev at range, and lets his hands go like he promised. Either he drops Aliev in an exchange with the heavy hands, or he stacks up volume (5.83 to 2.33 strikes per minute) and wins the standing rounds on the cards for a split decision.
Required Conditions
- Defend the takedown attempts of the first two rounds using size and reach
- Stay off the cage and avoid Aliev's extended control time
- Let the volume and power go from the start, no conserving energy like against Ramirez
- Make Aliev pay for the low output, punishing every takedown entry with a counter
— Precedent: Davis has already shown he wins standing rounds when the fight stays off the mat: a decision over Mason Jones in a Fight of the Night and a decision over striker Viacheslav Borshchev. Against a low-output Aliev with no power, the volume path is real.
Verdict
Winner
Nurullo Aliev
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Nurullo Aliev
Aliev because he has the wrestling, the 80% takedown defense and the youth to dictate where the fight happens against a Davis who sat out nearly a year. The market already sees it, so this is a moderate stake with no fat edge. Breaks if Davis defends the takedowns and lands the heavy hands.
- 02
Como termina (qualquer lutador)
Fight goes to decision
Decision because Aliev doesn't finish (9 of 11 wins on the cards, 0 career submissions) and Davis has never been knocked out in 15 fights. Both profiles push this to the full 15 minutes. Breaks if Davis lands clean early or gases and gets stopped by ground-and-pound.
- 03
Método
Aliev by decision
Aliev by decision because it's literally what he does: press, control, accumulate. Three straight UFC decisions. The market pays above even for an outcome that's the Tajik's calling card. Breaks if he loses the standing battle to Davis's volume.
- 04
Vencedor azarão
Mike Davis by decision
Davis by decision because it's the cleanest way the underdog wins: defend the takedowns with his size, keep it standing, and win on volume (5.83 to 2.33 strikes per minute). Breaks if he gets walked to the cage and controlled, or the layoff taxes his cardio.
Most Likely Outcome
Fight goes to decision, moderate stake
It's the soundest read in the analysis: Aliev has no power to finish, Davis has never been put away, and both profiles live in deep water. Conviction 6 means don't size it up, because Davis's power keeps a late KO risk on the table all night.
Stats That Matter
80%
Aliev's takedown defense, the wall Davis (66%) has to crack to keep this standing
It's the number the Tajik's whole control plan rests on
9 of 11
of Aliev's wins that came by decision, with just 2 KOs, both on the regional scene
He doesn't finish, he banks rounds
ZERO
times Mike Davis has been knocked out in 15 pro fights
Aliev, with 2 career KOs, doesn't have the pop to be the first
The Trap
Aliev inside the distance
The public will see '11-0, wrestler' and bet Aliev by submission or knockout, picturing a dominant early finish. But Aliev has just 2 career KOs, both on the regional scene, and ZERO submissions across 11 wins. Davis has never been knocked out in 15 fights and has been submitted just once, by an elite Gilbert Burns back in 2019. If Aliev wins, it's a decision, not a stoppage. Betting him inside the distance is fading the fighter's own profile.
The public will see '11-0, wrestler' and bet Aliev by submission or knockout, picturing a dominant early finish. But Aliev has just 2 career KOs, both on the regional scene, and ZERO submissions across 11 wins. Davis has never been knocked out in 15 fights and has been submitted just once, by an elite Gilbert Burns back in 2019. If Aliev wins, it's a decision, not a stoppage. Betting him inside the distance is fading the fighter's own profile.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Nurullo "Tajik Eagle" Aliev vs Mike "Beast Boy" Davis | UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov | July 25, 2026 | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
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